Syria in danger of disintegration

Yossi Schwartz ISL (RCIT section in Israel/Occupied Palestine) 30.12.2025

According to protesters, a series of demonstrations took place in the last few days in Syria, mainly in Alawite-majority cities and towns along the Syrian coast and in some of the interior areas. The main protest centers were in the provinces of Latakia and Tartus, among others, and they were accompanied by demands for federalism, an end to what were defined as “violations and crimes” against members of the Alawite community, and the release of detainees from among the community.

Violent clashes developed in some of the locations. According to official reports in Syria, three people were killed and about 60 were wounded in the clashes. According to the Al-Arabiya network, the number of people killed in today’s clashes has reached four.

The official Syrian news agency SANA has not yet reported on the events, but regime-affiliated Telegram channels claimed that some of the demonstrators used firearms against security forces. Footage posted on social media also showed demonstrators burning the flag of Turkey, which is considered a major supporter of the regime in Damascus.

According to the Syrian Observatory, one of the main demonstrations took place in Al-Azhari Square in the coastal city of Latakia, where there were reports of attacks against demonstrators and injuries, some of them in serious condition. Another hotspot that was prominent in the reports was the city of Jabala, where, according to the organization, an attack on demonstrators by regime supporters with knives and sharp tools was documented in the area of al-Amara Square, with casualties, some of whom were described as critical.

It was also reported that demonstrations took place in the cities of Banias and Homs, but there was a decrease in the number of participants shortly after they began, following friction and clashes with the security forces. The Alawites’ march into the streets comes after the community’s religious leader, Sheikh  Ghazal Ghazal, who heads the Alawite Islamic Council in Syria and the Diaspora, called on his people yesterday to take to the streets. Throughout the day, demonstrators were seen holding his picture and signs supporting him.

The demonstrations are taking place against the backdrop of a deadly attack that took place on Friday at an Alawite’s mosque in the city of Homs, in which eight people were killed and about 20 others were wounded.  The Saraya Ansar al-Sunna organization claimed responsibility for the attack. This is a Sunni organization that was officially established last June, led by a figure known as “Abu Aisha al-Shami,” and accuses the regime of President Ahmed al-Shara of “deviation”  from the “right” path of Islam and of a regime based on “man-made laws.”

According to a report in the Saudi Al-Arabiya channel, the organization first made headlines last June, after it carried out a suicide bombing at a church in Damascus, in which 25 worshippers were murdered. Since then, the organization has claimed responsibility for a series of other operations, including the assassination of elements affiliated with the Assad regime and the burning of forests in the areas of the Syrian coast –  a stronghold of the Alawite community – during the summer months.

In messages published in recent months on its Telegram channel, the group defined minorities as “infidels,” and it pledged to intensify attacks against them. Although the organization claims to be operating independently, sources in the West have told media outlets that it is a front organization of the Islamic State. These assessments are based, among other things, on the organization’s use of terminology and graphic design affiliated with ISIS, as well as a statement that reads: “We meet with them in faith and ideology.”

According to Al-Arabiya, most of the organization’s operatives are former commanders and fighters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who left the organization after its leader, Ahmed al-Shara,  became president of Syria.

According to a report published on the Syrian news website, ” In recent days, more than 100 members of the Assad regime’s forces have been smuggled from Iraq to the Hasaka region in Syria, and they have been transferred to two sites where the SDF forces operate – a militia supported by the United States, most of whose fighters are Kurds.

According to the report, regime members were transferred to the camp known as “Fuj al-Milbiyya” south of Hasakah and to the  “a-Sakah”  camp in the area of Kamishli. The arrival was carried out through the Rabi’a area, using a smuggling route along the border between Iraq and Syria. At this stage, no documentation has been published to support the claim.

However, the report fits into a broad trend of a wave of recruitment and absorption of veterans and security forces of the Assad regime into the ranks of the SDF, which operates in northeastern Syria.

Last month, the Syrian news website Enab Baladi published a  comprehensive investigation, based on a number of sources –  including SDF insiders, testimonies from the ground and a government source – according to which more than 4,500 members of the former Syrian regime have joined the SDF since the fall of the regime more than a year ago. According to the report.

It was also noted that some of the recruits are not only staying in training camps, but are also stationed around strategic locations: energy facilities – oil fields and gas facilities, this description, according to the website, emphasizes that this is not just an “absorption of armed refugees,” but an initiative to build an experienced force layer.

From a logistical-operational perspective, Enab Baladi notes that the entry of former regime members into northeastern Syria is also carried out through the Simalka crossing on the border with Iraqi Kurdistan.

According to Enav Baladi, the main motive is economic. The SDF offers significantly higher wages than are customary in other parts of Syria, amounts that can reach hundreds of dollars a month, depending on rank and position, against the backdrop of the severe economic crisis and ongoing erosion in the rest of the country.

The SDF leadership’s logic, according to the report, is to recruit “experienced military personnel, with the aim of negotiating with the regime in Damascus over the future of the militia from a position of power when its leaders refuse to join the Syrian army..”

Al-Jazeera also reported at the end of October 2025 that “thousands”  of members of Assad’s army had joined the SDF.

In March Alawite fighters staged an insurrection against Syria’s government. The uprising by loyalists of ousted President Bashar al-Assad killed more than 200 Syrian security forces and triggered days of vengeance and massacres. 1,500 Alawites died and tens of thousands fled out of fear for their lives. It broke the fragile relationship between Alawites, the sect of Assad.

Syria’s new Islamist-led government has extended amnesty and aid to Alawite communities in an effort to rebuild ties after a violent insurrection. The initiative, managed by former militant leaders, faces opposition and is criticized for being superficial, while communities remain skeptical of its effectiveness.

The program aims to support Alawite communities through financial aid, jobs, and medical services, attempting to win back their loyalty by providing amnesty to former fighters.

Despite these efforts, skepticism remains high among Alawites, as many criticize the initiative as superficial and fear reprisals. Syria’s leadership emphasizes accountability, promising trials for serious crimes while trying to restore civil peace across divided communities”[i]

Israel arms a Druze militia called the Military Council, according to two former Israeli officials directly involved in the effort.

Israel viewed Sharaa with profound suspicion because he had led an armed group formally linked, until a decade ago, to al-Qaeda, which is vehemently opposed to Israel’s existence, and because Israel wants parts of Syria cut to small states.

Al Sharaa’s government is very weak and his willingness to serve the U.S and to come to a peaceful agreement with Israel, creates tension in his camp. The weakness of this government and the danger for the Syrian state is the result of the fact that only one aspect of the democratic revolution was achieved: the removal of Assad the butcher. For the democratic revolution to be won it must continue towards a workers’ revolution.

Break all relations with the US and Israel!

For the unity of democratic Syria based on equality for all ethnic groups!

Continue with the revolution until victory in a workers’ state backed by the Fellahin!

Endnotes:

[i] https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/3744969-syrias-controversial-amnesty-offers-new-hope-for-alawites

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