Yossi Schwartz ISL ( RCIT section in Israel/Occupied Palestine), 29.06.2024
Iran’s diplomatic mission to the UN stated: “Albeit Iran deems as psychological warfare the Zionist regime’s propaganda about intending to attack Lebanon, should it embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue. All options, incl. The full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table.
“Any imprudent decision by the occupying Israeli regime to save itself could plunge the region into a new war, the consequence of which would be the destruction of Lebanon’s infrastructure as well as that of the 1948 occupied territories,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a social media post.
“Undoubtedly, this war will have one ultimate loser, which is the Zionist regime. The Lebanese Resistance Movement, Hezbollah, can defend itself and Lebanon – perhaps the time for the self-annihilation of this illegitimate regime has come.”[i]
On 13 April 2024, Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israel, targeting—among other unconfirmed trajectories—sites in the Golan Heights and Arad region and two air bases in the Negev. In a significant show of force, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles from its territory—an unprecedented break with its past approach. Israel and its allies, including the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Jordan, were able to neutralize a large part of the projectiles. Nevertheless, this was a warning to the Zionist state.
The Zionists-Hamas War is a prelude to future war in the Middle East. Iranian military leaders are drawing lessons from the war to develop concepts for fighting and destroying Israel. Senior Iranian officials are arguing that the war has revealed critical Israeli weaknesses that they can use. They explicitly examine ways to use allied forces to destabilize the Zionist monster. Iran is sharpening these concepts because it is increasingly confident that its “Axis of Resistance”— including Hamas and other forces across the region—is winning the war against the apartheid state and could fight and win a larger war, too.
Major General Gholam Ali Rashid—commander of the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters, which is the highest Iranian operational command level and responsible for all joint operations— expanded on the lesson from the Hamas attack on October 7th in a May 2024 interview and demonstrated how Iran is continuing to learn from Hamas. Rashid argued that the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 highlighted how effective and valuable ground attacks could be. Hamas’ attack demonstrated, Rashid said, that the Axis of Resistance could destroy the Israeli state by launching surprise attacks from Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank simultaneously. Such an attack would need 10,000 fighters from Lebanon, 10,000 from the Gaza Strip, and 2,000-3,000 from the West Bank.
Another tactic that Iran is developing involves attacking Israeli commercial interests to disrupt the Israeli economy. Iran and its Axis of Resistance have tried to impose an unofficial economic blockade on Israel throughout the war to coerce Israel into accepting defeat in the Gaza Strip. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei first called for this blockade in November 2023 when he said that “the paths of oil and food exports to the Zionist regime should be closed.”. The most obvious example of this line of effort is the Houthis attacks on international shipping around the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. to the Zionist monster.
“John Krzyzaniak, a research associate at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, said Iran’s missiles “pose a serious threat” to Israel. Tehran’s combat and suicide drones, meanwhile, can “wreak havoc on a civilian population” if fired in large numbers, he said.”[ii]
Israel has a stronger air force and nuclear bombs. Iran has better missiles and planes without pilots Iran has an advantage in a number of soldiers and other weapons. The outcome of a war between Israel and Iran is that a few million Iranians will die and one million Israelis too. If, in the current war, half a million Israelis escaped Israel in a war with Iran, millions of Israelis will escape. Such a war is likely to be the end of the Zionist colonialist project. Nevertheless, Netanyahu and his government are pushing for such a war.
Military data
Iran Israel
Total population 78.9 million 7.5 million
Males 16-49 23 million 1.8 million
Active forces 545,000 187,000
Reserve duty 650,000 565,000
Defense budget $9.2 billion $19.2billion
Army weaponry
Iran Israel
Tanks 1,613 3,501
Towed artillery 2,010 456
Self-propelled guns 865 620
Multiple rocket systems 200 138
Mortars 5,000 750
Anti-tank weapons 1,400 900
Anti-aircraft weapons 1,701 200
Logistical vehicles 12,000 7,684
Naval power
Iran Israel
Total navy ships 261 64
Merchant marine74 10
Major ports/terminals 3 4
Aircraft carriers 0 0
Destroyers 3 3
Submarines 19 3
Frigates 5 0
Patrol craft 198 42
Amphibious assault craft 26 0
Missile arsenal
Iran Israel
Short-range Shahab-2 (1,280km) Jericho-1 (1,400km)
Medium-range Ghadr-1 (1,600km) Jericho-2 (2,800km)
Long-range Sajjil-2 (2,400km) Jericho-3 (5,000km)
In such a war, the interest of the international working class is the revolutionary defeat of Israel and the military victory of Iran without supporting it politically.
In a war, Israel-Iran military victory of Iran!
Endnotes:
[i] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/21/israel-will-be-ultimate-loser-in-war-with-hezbollah-iran-says
[ii] https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-israel-missile-drone-military-threat-advantage/32912499.html