Theses on World Perspectives: In the Midst of a Cycle of Wars and Revolutions

Resolution by the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 19.08.2024, www.thecommunists.net

Introduction

1. The 7/10 attack and the ensuing Gaza War, with all its regional and global implications, has opened a new phase in the world situation. The recent stock market crash, the turn of events in the Ukraine War, the popular uprisings in Kenya, Bangladesh and Venezuela, the accelerating tensions between China and the Philippines (a close ally of the U.S.) over control of the Spratly Islands – all these events reflect the massive tensions in the relations between the classes and states and are harbingers of future developments in a period increasingly characterised by wars, revolutions and counterrevolutions.

2. The key task of revolutionaries in such a period is elaborate a correct analysis of the capitalist crisis and a program for the global class struggle, to transmit these ideas to the vanguard of the working class and the oppressed, to intervene in the mass struggles and to build a new revolutionary party – nationally and internationally. This is the task which the RCIT has set itself and for which we seek close collaboration with like-minded revolutionaries.

Gaza War, the heroic Palestinian resistance and the looming war between Israel/U.S. and Iran

3. The RCIT characterised the attack on 7 October as a “historic event” already in its very first statement, published a few hours after the beginning. And, indeed, Hamas’ attack against the Zionist state and the ensuing war in Gaza is one of the most important events in recent history and has opened a new phase in the world situation. Since we have analysed the Gaza War in much detail, we will limit ourselves at this point to summarise the most important features and consequences. [1]

4. Israel has launched one of the most appalling genocides of the 21^st century – given the small size of Palestinian population in Gaza and the short period in which it has taken place. (A possible equivalent is Russia’s genocide against the Chechen people in the two wars of independence in 1994-96 and 1999-2009.) At the same time, the Zionist army – despite such unspeakable brutality, despite being the fourth strongest military in the world and despite receiving the most modern weaponry from the U.S. – has been incapable of defeating the heroic Palestinian resistance forces until now. Even Israel’s war minister Galant was forced to admit recently that “any talk of absolute victory is pure nonsense“! There is hardly a more glaring example of David against Goliath in our living time! This in itself already represents a massive victory for the Palestinian people and the thunderous defeat for the Zionist state – irrespective of the further course of the war.

5. The events since 7/10 have opened the worst crisis of Israel since its foundation in 1948 as its power of deterrence has been severely undermined and because it is forced to fight the longest war in its history. This has already provoked half a million Israelis to flee the country. In addition, Israel faces a massive polarisation between (semi-)fascist Zionist forces (e.g. Ben Gvir and Smotrich) and liberal Zionists who hate Netanyahu and the growing isolation of their country (but don’t object to the oppression the Palestinians in principle). In addition, there is a radicalisation of young ultra-orthodox Haredi Jews – a growing minority of 17% of Israeli Jews – who resist conscription. As a result, the government – an extreme fragile coalition held together by the corrupt butcher Netanyahu who would face trial after the end of the war – is permanently existing on the edge of collapse.

6. The Zionist genocide against the Palestinian people and their daring resistance has provoked an unprecedented global solidarity movement. Rallies and demonstrations are taking place in nearly all countries on all continents. The largest mobilisations are taking place in a) the Arab and Muslim countries (North Africa, West, South and South-East Asia) and b) the Western imperialist allies of Israel (most importantly Western Europe and Northern America but also in Australia and Japan). ^[2] In the Arab and Muslim countries this anti-imperialist movement is based on the popular masses, while in Western countries its main basis are migrant workers from Muslim countries as well as progressive activists. By its size and duration, it is comparable with the mass movements against the Iraq War in 2003 or against the Vietnam War in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Ideologically, it is dominated by petty-bourgeois nationalism and Islamism resp. pacifism.

7. In addition to this global solidarity movement, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been engaged in military activities in order to support the Palestinian liberation struggle. Particularly the Houthis are highly effective in interrupting maritime trade in the Red Sea and bringing Israeli exports and imports on this route to a standstill. Israel’s southern port in Eilat has been effectively forced to close business.

8. Israel’s crisis is exacerbated by its growing international isolation. As a result of the genocide, the ongoing Palestinian resistance and the global mass protests, the Zionist state has become more than ever hated and despised. It is the byword for genocide and even Western states and institutions which have historically been dominated by Western powers – like the ICC and the ICJ – have been forced to take steps against the killer state (rhetorically or real). There is hardly any event in culture or sports without protest against Israel’s presence. It is clear that this historic discrediting of the Zionist Apartheid state and its Western allies (in particular the U.S.) will have long-term consequences. It has destroyed once and for all the Western-generated image of Israel as “the only democracy in the Middle East” or of the U.S. and the EU as defenders of “human rights” and “international law”. The Gaza War has been a severe and lasting blow to Western imperialism, in general, and liberalism, in particular.

9. The global reputation and hegemony of U.S. imperialism has declined in this period in parallel with that of Israel. This has been reflected in America’s and Israel’s isolation within the United Nations, its receding influence in institutions like the ICC and the ICJ, as well as the general decline of its ability to influence world events. This has also been revealed by Washington’s inability to force Netanyahu to agree on a ceasefire (at least until now) so that Biden/Harris could remove this issue – as well as a potential regional war in the Middle East with another highly unpopular American participation – before the beginning of the election season. (More on this below.)

10. In order to restore Israel’s power of deterrence and to avoid the collapse of his government (and, hence, facing trial for corruption), Netanyahu is determined to continue and expand the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and against Iran. Such a transformation of the Gaza War into a regional war would have tremendous consequences not only for the Middle East but also globally. It would skyrocket prices for oil and gas and could trigger another recession of the already fragile world economy, it could destabilise the Arab regimes, shake Israel to the very foundations, and – depending on the concrete course of such a war – could open a revolutionary crisis in one or several countries (including in Iran). Another possibility for the Netanyahu government to extend the war is an escalation of its attacks in the Westbank and the ethnical cleansing of its native population, i.e. another Nakba (which is the plan of Ben Gvir and Smotrich). In any case, even if a regional war is avoided and even if a temporary ceasefire can be imposed, there is no doubt that the Middle East, in general, and occupied Palestine, in particular, will remain a highly explosive tinderbox in the coming years. The loss of Israel’s power of deterrence and the parallel rise of Iran, the inspiring example of the heroic Palestinian resistance, the discrediting of the Arab regimes, the lack of a strong Great Power which can dominate the whole region (as the U.S. did in the past) – all this means that this region is pregnant with wars and revolutions.

11. There are two main obstacles for the complete victory of the Palestinian people in this war. First, the treacherous collaboration of the Arab and Muslim regimes with Western imperialism and Israel. These regimes – from the absolute monarchies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, General Sisi in Egypt to King Mohammed VI in Morocco – they all either continue to collaborate with Israel or, at least, refuse to take any practical steps against Israel. Only a popular uprising to overthrow these imperialist and Zionist lackeys, i.e. a renewal of the Arab Revolution which brings the working class and the fellahin to power, can ensure that the Arab and Muslim countries come to the assistance of the heroic Palestinian people by aid and arms.

12. The second main obstacle is the reformist leadership of the Western labour movement because it blocks the transformation of mass outrage against Israel war into practical boycott actions against the Zionist monster. The labour bureaucracy in Western countries is traditionally pro-imperialist and, hence, pro-Zionist. In many cases, it openly supports the Apartheid state. Given the massive pressure from the pro-Palestine movement, which has many sympathies amongst rank & file trade unionists, some unions have joined the call for a ceasefire. This is, for example, the case with seven national trade unions and over 200 local labour unions in the U.S. However, even in such cases, the bureaucracy limit itself to empty declarations and refuses to take any concrete actions against Israel.

13. Such shameful policy is the result of the deep integration of the labour bureaucracy in the imperialist state apparatus resp. its close links with monopoly capital. Another side of such integration is the aristocratic character of the labour movement and its lack of strong links to the lower and nationally oppressed strata. The labour movement can only be revolutionised by combining an energetic struggle against the bureaucracy, based on a socialist program, with efforts to change the social composition of the trade unions by bringing radical movements (like Black Live Matters or the Pro-Palestine movement) into it. Today, the immediate goal is to win the trade unions for supporting strike and boycott actions against Israel.

14. It is well-known that wars and revolutions are the most important tests for every political force. The reformist, left-populist and Stalinist parties either ignore the pro-Palestine solidarity movement or limit themselves to calls for ceasefire. The best among these – like Mélenchon’s LFI in France or the Greek KKE – manage to stand up against the pro-Zionist elite and defend the pro-Palestine movement but do not go further. Furthermore, most of them support a two-state solution, i.e. the creation of a small Palestine in Gaza and the Westbank which would become a Bantustan-like semi-colony totally dependent on Israel. Influential forces in the pro-Palestine movement either limit themselves to pacifism (i.e. they refuse to openly take the side of the Palestinian resistance) or they don’t understand the necessity to work towards winning the organised labour movement for strike and boycott activities.

15. The main problem with petty-bourgeois nationalism and Islamism in the Middle East, despite their unaccountable sacrifices and their heroic struggles against the Zionist state, against the Assad tyranny in Syria or against the Sisi regime in Egypt, is that they do not orient to the working class and don’t focus on building workers and popular councils and militias. Instead, they hope to gain support from foreign states (Türkiye in the case of the Syrian Revolution, Iran and the “Axis of Resistance” in case of Hamas today) which means that they prefer tactical alliances with some reactionary regimes instead of building international alliances with other oppressed peoples.

16. In order to overcome the crisis of leadership, Marxists must advocate a program of struggle and work towards the construction of a revolutionary party – nationally and internationally – which aims to replace the existing leadership. In the current conflicts today, the RCIT advocates unconditional military support for the Palestinian resistance and the defeat of the Zionist state. Likewise, we side with the Lebanese resistance and with Iran in any confrontation with Israel or the U.S. At the same time, we refuse to lend any political support for these forces. We reiterate that the only way forward is the revolutionary destruction of the Israeli Apartheid state and the creation of a free and red Palestine from the River to the Sea, i.e. a workers and fellahin republic as part of a socialist federation of the Middle East. [3]

World economy: From stock market crash to another recession?

17. The recent stock market crash has been a stark reminder of the extremely fragile state of the capitalist world economy. In late July and early August, stock markets around the world experienced a massive slump. On “Black Monday” (5 August), its high point so far, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped by 12.4% – the second-largest decline in its history. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 8.77% and Taiwan’s Taiex by 8.35%. America’s and Europe’s stock markets experienced a less dramatic but still considerable decline on that day by 2-3%. All in all, in the span of three weeks, some $6.4 trillion has been erased from global stock markets and the world’s 500 wealthiest people lost a combined $134 billion! [4] While markets recovered somehow in the following days, the crisis is certainly not over. As one analyst said on Bloomberg TV, “we are not done by any stretch.” [5]

18. This crisis on the financial markets has been triggered by several factors which point to some fundamental problems of the capitalist world economy. First, the stock markets are extremely overvalued, i.e. stock price values of the leading corporations are far above the value of their assets. The so-called Tobin’s Q – which measures this ratio of the 500 largest companies listed on U.S. stock markets – is near a historic record high. Another example of the capitalists’ speculative drive is the huge amount of so-called “carry trade”, a form of currency speculation. In the past period, investors borrowed lots of yen at previously zero interest rates and then bought US dollar assets. However, as the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rate, this speculation suffered a blow.

19. Another important factor which triggered the latest stock market crash has been the AI bubble. In fact, the boom in the stock market was nearly exclusively driven by seven large social media, tech and chip companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla). They have made huge investments, but doubts are increasing that this could yield profits. The economist David Goldman reports that, for example, OpenAI is earning $3.4 billion a year but losing $5 billion in the same period. “A mystical leap of faith is required to match the paltry revenues of LLM providers and the massive CapEx required to support them.” [6] And the Marxist economist Michael Roberts writes: “These companies have invested billions into their AI infrastructure, but investors now started to wonder about the returns on this investment. Equity investor company, Elliot management said AI is ‘overhyped with many applications not ready for prime time’ and that uses are ‘never going to be cost-efficient, are never going to actually work right, will take up too much energy or will prove to be untrustworthy.’ Indeed, surveys show that, so far, only 5% of firms are using AI in their operations, suggesting limited growth, or at least slow growth.” [7] The Big Tech bubble is also caused by a gigantic state capitalist program of subsidies. For example, in March, the US Department of Commerce announced $8.5 billion in grants and $11 billion loans for Intel, which US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo described as “a massive step toward ensuring America’s leadership in manufacturing for the 21st century.” [8] All this confirms our warning about blind faith in AI and its supposedly miraculous capabilities and also about its role in replacing surplus-generating labour. [9]

20. Most importantly, the stock market crash has been caused by the growing dichotomy between the financial boom and the ongoing stagnation of the real economy. As the RCIT elaborated in various documents, the capitalist world economy has entered a period a stagnation and decline with the Great Recession in 2008/09 – a tendency which worsened with the Great Depression in 2019/20. [10] As one can see in Table 1, industrial production – the core of capitalist value creation – is stagnating globally and declining in most Western imperialist economies. A massive slump was avoided last year only because China’s economy did grow stronger than the rest, albeit also below its historic level. Figure 1 shows that manufacturing and capacity in the U.S. are still far below their levels before the recession in 2008 and about the same as in early 2020. Bear in mind that we are supposed to be in the boom phase of the current economic cycle which shows how much the capitalist world economy has lost its dynamic.

Table 1. Growth of World Industrial Production Volume (in %), 2021 – 1^st Quarter 2024 [11]

2021 2022 2023 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1

World 7,5 3,1 0,9 0,5 0,7 0,1

Advanced Economies 6,2 2,1 -1,1 -0,4 0,3 -0,8

Euro Area 8,4 1,9 -2,0 -1,8 -0,2 -0,8

United States 4,4 3,4 0,2 0,1 -0,3 -0,1

United Kingdom -5,2 -3,4 -0,4 0,0 -1,1 0,8

Japan 5,6 0,1 -1,5 -0,6 1,1 -5,2

Advanced Asia (excl. Japan) 11,1 0,3 -5,8 1,9 3,5 -1,0

Other advanced economies 6,6 3,4 0,4 -0,1 0,7 0,3

Emerging Economies 8,9 4,0 2,9 1,3 1,1 1,0

China 10,6 3,7 4,3 2,5 2,0 1,4

Emerging Asia (excl. China) 12,1 5,0 2,5 1,5 -1,1 0,9

Eastern Europe / CIS 4,4 -1,5 3,4 0,7 0,4 1,4

Latin America 8,1 3,2 0,8 0,3 -0,3 -0,3

Africa and Middle East 1,7 7,2 -1,5 -3,1 0,5 0,0

21. As we have explained in the past, the depressed character of the current cycle is basically a result of the long-term tendencies of the capitalist world economy. Capitalists invest to make profit and, depending on their profit expectations, they make investments to increase output. However, as Marx elaborated in Capital Vol. III, in the long run, the share of surplus value (which is the basis for profit) becomes smaller relative to all of the capital invested in production (in machinery, raw materials, etc., as well as wages paid to workers). Therefore, the surplus value which can potentially be used for the reproduction of capital on an extended level becomes less and less. This inevitably leads to disruptions and crises and a historic tendency of decline as it becomes less and less profitable for the capitalists to invest in the expansion of production.

22. Naturally, over-accumulation of capital, over-production of commodities, and the tendency of the rate of profit to fall is not a linear process, but its tempo and dynamics are influenced by various counter-veiling tendencies – most importantly by the relation of forces between the classes, i.e., the political class struggle. [13] However, while such factors can for some time slow down or temporarily halt the fall of the rate of profit, they cannot stop – or even reverse – the decline in the long run. Figure 2 shows the long-term trend of global output to decline, Figure 3 demonstrates the decline of net investment, i.e. the expansion of capital stock, and in Figure 4 we see the tendency of the profit rate to fall in the 20 largest economies in the world.

23. Does this mean that a sharp recession is imminent? It is too early to say. The combination of long-term depression of the economy and the high level of state-capitalist intervention in the economy (not only in China but in all imperialist countries including such neoliberal fortresses like the U.S.) has created a very untypical, “manipulated” course of the capitalist cycle. In the last cycle – between the recessions in 2008/09 and 2019/20 – we saw a mini-recession in 2015 which, however, did not transform into a sharp decline. Likewise, in the current cycle we saw already recessionary phases in various important economies in 2022 and 2023. [17] As a result of such state-capitalist interventions, bourgeois governments have massively increased public debt in the past two decades in order to avoid a recession and to support the struggling corporations. This has resulted in massive increase of global public debt – from 61.1% (2007) to 96% (2021). In the U.S. public debt even doubled in the same period from 64.6% to 128.1% and in China it even increased from 29.2% to 71.5%. Hence, it is not possible to predict if another sharp recession will happen now or in the next years.

Figure 1. Industrial Production and Capacity in the U.S. Economy, 1967-2024 [12]

Figure 2. World GDP Growth 1963-2020 ^[14]

Figure 3. Net Investment Rate in “Advanced” and “Emerging” Capitalist Economise, 2001-21 ^[15]

Figure 4. G-20 Rate of Profit, 1950-2019 [16]

The decline of U.S. hegemony, inter-imperialist rivalry and accelerating tensions in the South China Sea

24. The RCIT has always emphasised that one of the key features in the current historic period which opened in 2008 has been the decline of U.S. imperialism as the absolute hegemonic power and the parallel rise of China as the leading rival. ^[18] This tendency has become evident in the rise of China to become No. 1 or 2 in global production, trade, corporations or billionaires. [19] Likewise, Russia, and also China, are challenging the U.S. as the military hegemon. (See Tables 2-7) [20]

Table 2. Top Six Countries in Global Manufacturing, 2000 and 2022 ^[21]

Rank Country Share 2000 Share 2022

1. China 9.8% 30.7%

2. U.S. 23.7% 16.1%

3. Japan 10.2% 6.0%

4. Germany 6.4% 4.8%

5. South Korea 2.5% 3.1%

6. India 1.4% 3.1%

Table 3. Leading Exporters in World Merchandise Trade (excluding intra-EU Trade), 2023 ^[22]

Rank Country 2023

1. China 17.5%

2. EU 14.3%

3. U.S. 10.4%

4. Japan 3.7%

5. South Korea 3.3%

Table 4. Top 10 Countries with the Ranking of Fortune Global 500 Companies (2023) ^[23]

Rank Country Companies Share (in%)

1 United States 136 27.2%

2 China (excl. Taiwan) 135 27.0%

3 Japan 41 8.2%

4 Germany 30 6.0%

5 France 23 4.6%

6 South Korea 18 3.6%

7 United Kingdom 15 3.0%

8 Canada 14 2.8%

9 Switzerland 11 2.2%

10 Netherlands 10 2.0%

Table 5. Top 5 Countries of the Forbes Billionaires 2023 List ^[24]

Rank Country Number of billionaires

1 United States 735

2 China (incl. Hong Kong) 561

3 India 169

4 Germany 126

5 Russia 105

Table 6. Top 5 Countries of the Hurun Global Rich List 2022 ^[25]

Rank Country Number of billionaires

1 China (incl. Hong Kong) 923

2 U.S. 691

3 India 187

4 Germany 144

5 United Kingdom 134

Table 7. World Nuclear Forces, 2024 [26]

Country Total Military Stockpile Total Inventory (incl. Retired Warheads)

Russia 4,380 5,580

United States 3,708 5,044

China 500 500

France 280 290

United Kingdom 225 225

India 172 172

Pakistan 170 170

Israel 90 90

North Korea 50 50

25. As we noted already above, America’s decline has been accelerated since the beginning of the Gaza War. In the past, Washington dominated the Middle East and if an adversary emerged, like Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1990/91 and 2003 or Iran since 1979, it was able to isolate resp. to defeat them. This is no longer the case. Iran has increased its regional influence. Former loyal U.S.-allies like Türkiye, Saudi Arabia or the UAE are increasingly pursuing an independent foreign policy and manoeuvre between the Western and the Eastern Great Powers. And even Israel listens to Biden’s wishes only if it agrees with them. However, the U.S. decline can also be seen in other areas of world politics. For example, it has become evident that the Biden Administration is looking for a way out of its indirect involvement in the Ukraine War. And such a retreat will probably accelerate rapidly if Trump wins the upcoming Presidential election. [27]

26. The decline of the U.S. has also been expressed in the semi-paralysis of its domestic policy in recent months. The drop out of the senile President Biden from the elections, the threat of a sharp turn in domestic and foreign policy by a Trump-Vance Administration, the huge tensions on issues like migration and abortion rights – all this reflects that the ruling class in the U.S. is deeply divided. There is a serious possibility that if either side wins the elections, the other side will try to undermine its opponent by any means necessary or even openly resist by using state resources or arms.

27. The RCIT has the long-standing position of refusing support for the Democrats or the Republicans at elections as both are bourgeois and imperialist parties. The past four years of Biden/Harris and the previous period of Trump have clearly shown that both camps are worse. However, socialists would not take an abstentionist position in concrete struggles for democratic rights but would rather mobilise in defence of Palestine, migrants, women or LGBT+ persons.

28. A key area where the inter-imperialist rivalry has accelerated in the past 1-2 years is the South China Sea. The conflict between China and Taiwan (a close ally of the U.S.) has been alleviated for now, mainly because a) China has consolidated its massive presence in the area, b) the pro-independence forces in Taiwan lost their majority in parliament at the last elections and c) Washington has not been interested to escalate the conflict in the last period. However, at the same time the tensions between China and the Philippines have massively intensified. The focus of this conflict is currently some atolls in the eastern part of the Spratley Islands. There have been several non-lethal clashes between the navies of the two states and, most recently, there was an incident involving their warplanes.

29. The Philippines are the closest ally of the U.S. in Southeast Asia (aside from Taiwan) since many decades. It is home of several U.S. military bases, and the Pentagon has close ties with the Philippine army under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. In May 2023, the US made an explicit commitment to defend the Philippines if it came under attack in the South China Sea. Hence, it is clear that the Philippines tough approach against Beijing is coordinated with Washington and is based on the knowledge that the U.S. would support it in any confrontation with Chinese forces. Hence, in any confrontation, the Philippines (or Taiwan) would not act as an independent force but rather as a proxy of the U.S. In such conflicts, the RCIT equally opposes both camps and advocates a revolutionary defeatist position on both sides.

The Ukraine War: Towards ceasefire negotiations or an unexpected turn?

30. The war in Ukraine has been characterized by the failed counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army in summer 2023, followed by another offensive of Russia which has been slowly progressing in several regions in the east and the north. Most recently, Ukraine forces made a surprise intrusion in Russia’s Kursk region. Kiev did not coordinate its latest offensive with its Western allies as Washington and Brussels were totally surprised by it. This shows, by the way, that despite all collaboration with NATO, Ukraine has still not become a proxy of Western imperialism.

31. Naturally, we are not in a position to predict the future course of this operation. However, it seems unlikely to us that it could change the fundamental dynamic of the war. Russia, as an imperialist power with one of the strongest military forces in the world, is by definition vastly superior to Ukraine, a capitalist semi-colony which has been plundered by Western and Russian monopolies as well as domestic oligarchs since 1991. [28] Furthermore, Putin has successfully put the economy on war-footing and countered Western sanctions.

32. At the same time, demoralisation is spreading among Ukraine’s population. The Zelensky government has undermined Ukraine’s just war of national defence by its close alliance with NATO, Western monopolies (to which it wants to sell out the country’s natural resources) as well as its domestic oligarchs. The widespread corruption in the military recruitment centres is also undermining the fighting spirit. In addition, the Bankova suppresses all kind of political opposition. Furthermore, the bourgeois government has waged the war against Russia on a chauvinist basis, i.e. not against the Putin regime and in solidarity with the Russia’s working class but against the Russian people and their supposed “backward, non-European, Asian culture”. Likewise, it discriminates the Russian-speaking minority in the East of the country. It is therefore not surprising that Ukraine could not defeat the Russian troops in the past two and a half years. This would only have been possible by transforming the struggle into a true people’s war similar to the heroic struggle of the Palestinian people in Gaza who are ready to make the greatest sacrifices in order to defend their homeland and where thousands of youth are volunteering to join the armed resistance struggle.

33. Of course, all these deficits did not negate the legitimate character of Ukraine’s war of national defence. But these factors explain why the Zelensky government could not mobilise stronger and lasting support from the masses. In fact, the Bankova has advocated for long that Ukraine becomes a member of NATO and EU, i.e. a proxy of Western imperialism. Zelensky has not succeeded in such not because he did not try hard enough but because Washington and Brussels refused this since they want to avoid a direct war with Russia.

34. Since the beginning of this war in February 2022, the RCIT emphasised the reactionary character of Russia’s war against Ukraine. We have therefore characterised Ukraine’s struggle against Putin’s invasion as a just war of national defence from the very beginning. At the same time, we emphasise the dual character of the conflict since it is not only a national liberation war of Ukraine but, at the same time, it is also linked with the accelerating rivalry between the imperialist powers. Hence, a consistent internationalist and anti-imperialist position requires a dual tactic. Socialists are obliged to defend semi-colonial Ukraine against Russian imperialism. However, they must not lend any support to the chauvinist and militarist policy of any Great Power against their rivals. Hence, it is impermissible to support economic sanctions or similar Great Power measures. While we side with Ukraine and it’s just war of national defence, we refuse to lend any political support for the bourgeois and pro-NATO government of Zelensky. As we did elaborate in several documents, it is not excluded that the character of the Ukraine War could undergo a qualitatively change in the future, i.e. that it transforms from a war which is primarily a national liberation war of Ukraine into a war where Ukraine has become a proxy of Western imperialism, and which is therefore equally reactionary on both sides. This could be the case if e.g. NATO troops directly intervene in the war, if Ukraine becomes a member of NATO or the EU or if similar developments take place. [29]

35. However, in the short-term it seems more likely that Ukraine will be forced to accept ceasefire negotiations with Russia in which the latter is currently in a stronger position. Western powers will also look to pressurise the Bankova to agree to such negotiations because they find it increasingly difficult to continue military and economic support for Ukraine at the current level. Western financial institutions are also putting pressure on Ukraine that it brings the war to a close so that the government can start paying back its huge debts. [30]

36. However, one should also not overestimate the state of Russia’s military and the political stability in the country. Putin has managed to keep control of the society a) by brutal repression against all forms of protests and b) by avoiding full mobilisation which, by definition, would affect the whole population. The latter means that most sectors of Russia’s population do not feel any consequences of the war (or the Western sanctions). However, such a policy also means that Russia does not have a sufficient number of soldiers in order to wage the war in Ukraine and, at the same time, to sufficiently guard its international borders. The result of this, as we can currently see in the Kursk region, is that the Ukrainian army can make surprise intrusions which makes the Putin regime look weak. While it currently seems that the Ukrainian troops will be forced to retreat sooner or later, a repetition of such embarrassing stunts could seriously harm the prestige of the Kremlin and provoke a domestic crisis. This could provoke a radical turn in the course of the war and open a revolutionary crisis in Russia. However, as we said, this seems at the moment the less likely development for the next few months.

37. Socialists in Ukraine continue to oppose the Zelensky government and advocate a workers government based on independent organisations of the masses (“Radas”). Such a government would nationalise the foreign and domestic monopolies under workers control, expropriate the oligarchs, and build an army and state apparatus which is under control of the popular masses. Only such a government would be able to transform the struggle into a true people’s war.

38. We are not ultra-leftists, and we are aware that there could arise a situation where Ukraine might be forced to accept a ceasefire or even a peace treaty because of the adverse relation of forces. (Like Soviet Russia was forced to make a peace treaty with German imperialism in Brest-Litovsk in February 1918.) Naturally, we put the blame for such a negative development a) to the brutal aggression of the Kremlin and b) to the reactionary policy of the Zelensky government. Still, it might be necessary under specific circumstances to agree to an unfavourable ceasefire or peace treaty. However, in such a situation, we would denounce the Bankova for its political responsibility for such a defeat. We emphasise that the working class should utilise such a period of ceasefire in order to “cleanse the house”, i.e. to utilize popular committees which need to be created even before such a situation arrives and which purge the corrupted and bourgeois traitors and expose those who did enrich themselves while many died at the frontline. In such a period the working class should strive to replace the regime by its own government and to prepare the restart the national liberation war against the Russian occupation – but this time as a true people’s war.

Popular uprisings in Bangladesh, Venezuela and Kenya and other countries

39. The global class struggle has experienced an important upswing in the past 10 months. As mentioned above, a global pro-Palestine solidarity movement has emerged. In addition, several popular uprisings either have brought down authoritarian regimes or, at least, seriously challenged these. In Bangladesh, millions of workers and students have protested against the corrupt and autocratic regime of Sheik Hasina and her capitalist Awami League. After nearly two months of mass demonstrations and brutal crackdown – several hundred people were killed by the repression apparatus – the uprising forced Hasina in early August to flee her palace with a helicopter. ^[31]

40. This uprising has regional consequences because a) Bangladesh is the eighth-most populated country in the world with 169 million people and b) it has been a key ally of Modi’s India under Sheik Hasina. The latter is all the more important since the Modi regime is already in a weakened state as it suffered losses at the last elections and India has experienced important mass protests both of workers as well as of peasants in the past years.

41. Furthermore, the upheaval in Bangladesh could intersect with the revolutionary mass struggle in Burma/Myanmar. In fact, the events in the latter country are said to have had an inspiring effect on the Bangladeshi youth. The popular uprising against the military coup in February 2021, which later transformed into a revolutionary civil war, has made important progress in the last year. The rebels – in particular the so-called Three Brotherhood Alliance (comprising the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army) managed to liberate significant parts of the country since the beginning of their Operation 1027 in October last year. It is quite possible that they could overthrow the military regime in the near future. [32]

42. In Venezuela, sectors of the masses took to the street after the authoritarian regime of Maduro falsely claimed victory in the Presidential elections, a claim based on massive fraud. Here too, the regime has brutally suppressed the protests which have been significant in the neighbourhoods of the working class and the popular masses where traditionally the Chavistas had their strongholds. It was here where the workers and the poorest people took to the streets demanding a democracy that has been crushed by the Chavista dictatorship. Many of them used the elections as a plebiscite and voted for party of María Corina Machado. It is because of the massive discrediting of the Maduro regime and the desperate search of the masses for an alternative that such a right-wing party can currently enjoy great popularity. However, this party fears the mobilisation of the masses and has managed to demobilize the first waves of struggle. It rather focuses on negotiations with the Maduro regime and the pressure of the capitalist governments of the region – especially those with which it has relations like Lula, Amlo or Petro – and of Yankee imperialism.

43. However, the armed forces are still firmly on Maduro’s side, because their high command is part of the “boliburguesía” (Bolibourgeoisie), which developed in web of the Venezuela’s state business with the multinational oil companies. This has often resulted in the creation of “mixed” companies which generates high profits both boliburguesía as well as the foreign corporations. Several of these belong to American monopolies, whose government, on one hand, has imposed painful sanctions against Venezuela but, on the other hand, has a careful attitude towards the Venezuelan regime. The reason for such a contradictory approach of Washington is that, despite its political and ideological differences and the regime’s rapprochement with the imperialist rivals of the Yankees, Maduro has guaranteed a level of governability in the past decade that the most recalcitrant right that acts in the opposition is not in a position to sustain.

44. In contrast to the propaganda of many Bolivarian populists, the Maduro regime does not serve the workers and popular masses but rather represents the interests of the Boliburguesía as well as of foreign imperialists (the Maduro regime has closely collaborated both with U.S. monopolies like Chevron as well as with Russian and Chinese imperialism). It brutally suppresses workers strikes and independent trade unions and prohibited left-wing parties to field their own candidate at the elections. The popular protests in Venezuela could have important international repercussions given the regional and global relevance of the country – not only because it is an important oil exporter but also because of its place within the Eastern imperialist camp led by Russia and China and its role as an ideological model of bourgeois “left”-populism. [33]

45. In Kenya, mass protests erupted against a finance bill which would have increased taxes on numerous essential goods and services including bread, cooking oil, motor vehicles, bank transfer, etc. When the police failed to disperse the demonstrations, President William Ruto deployed the military which fired live rounds and killed at least 50 people, mostly youth, and injured many more. In response, angry demonstrators stormed the parliament and set parts of it on fire. Shocked by this popular uprising, Ruto was forced to withdraw the bill and to dismiss most of his ministers. [34]

46. This semi-successful uprising has important regional consequences. First, because Kenya has become a “major non-NATO ally“, making it the first sub-Saharan African nation to receive such designation. As such a servant of U.S. imperialism, Ruto has agreed to deploy 1,000 police to Haiti in order to “restore law and order” in the interest of the ruling class. Hence, the downfall of the Ruto regime could be also a serious setback for the position of U.S. imperialism in Sub-Sahara Africa. Second, the popular uprisings did already inspire similar protests in Uganda and Nigeria which the local regimes managed to suppress by now only with brutal violence. ^[35] More protests might follow, and some bourgeois analysts already warn of an “African Spring” – similar to the “Arab Spring” which started with the revolutionary upheaval in Tunisia in December 2010 / January 2011.

47. Milei’s victory at the Presidential elections in Argentina has opened a new period of reactionary attacks on the working class and popular masses. The government tries to impose a series of IMF-dictated austerity attacks, threatens democratic rights and enforces a reorientation of the country’s foreign policy away from BRICS+ and towards close alignment with the U.S. and Israel. There have been already two general strikes, several mass demonstrations (including a mass mobilisation of students) and some large processes of struggle in certain provinces of the interior, such as Misiones and Corrientes. In this framework, the Peronist union bureaucracy is committed, as a whole, to guarantee governability, launching some measures of struggles (like the two general strikes) to decompress and not lose its place as the leadership of the main unions and workers’ centers. ^[36]

48. Finally, there have also been a series of mass protests in France in reaction to the strong results of the right-wing RN of Le Pen in the first round of the parliamentary elections in June. While these were important mobilisations showing the combat-readiness of anti-fascist and anti-racist sectors of the working class and youth, the reformist parties unfortunately managed to channel this movement into electoral support for the popular front NFP.

Revolutionary tactics and mass struggles

49. While there are many differences between these popular uprisings, they have two important features in common. First, most of these mobilisations were caused by democratic issues – the authoritarian or right-wing character of the regime or the threat of creation of such. (In some cases, this has been mixed with economic issues.) If we add the wars in Gaza resp. the Middle East and in Ukraine, it is clear that these developments are a powerful confirmation of the RCIT’s thesis about the crucial importance of the national and democratic question in the current historic period. ^[37] Authentic socialists must support all such mass struggles and fight for a revolutionary solution of these issues. This means unconditional support for national liberations wars, for the downfall of authoritarian regimes, for a Revolutionary Constituent Assembly. At the same time, such a revolutionary-democratic struggle must be combined with a program for working-class power. Hence, socialists advocate the self-organisation of the masses in popular councils and militias which should be the basis for a workers and poor peasants government.

50. Secondly, these important mass mobilisations all reveal the terrible crisis of revolutionary leadership. Some of them have a strongly spontaneous character, lack an experienced leadership, and are influenced by various petty-bourgeois ideologies. The danger of this is that such movements often fail to build popular councils and disappear sooner or later. Many other mass movements are led by petty-bourgeois nationalist, populist or Islamist forces or reformist trade union bureaucrats. As we said above, revolutionaries must advocate the self-organisation of the masses. However, as long as non-revolutionary leaderships retain important influence among the masses (and given the weakness of authentic Marxist forces such a situation will last for some time), it is crucial to advocate the united front tactic as it was elaborated by Lenin and Trotsky. This means socialists warn against the dangerous and often treacherous policy of the existing leaderships. At the same time, they put demands on these leaderships in order to organise the pressure of the masses against the bureaucrats and, ultimately, to break them away from these mis-leaders. ^[38]

51. A specific form of applying such a united front tactic in the U.S. is the call to the anti-war trade unions and the pro-Palestine solidarity movement to break with the Democrats and to build an independent workers party (a tactic which Trotsky elaborated in the 1930s). Such a party, in which Marxists would advocate a socialist program, could organise the progressive sectors of the workers, migrants and youth independent of the capitalist class and advance the independent class struggle.

52. In some cases, there exists a clear danger that openly bourgeois or even right-wing parties could hijack such mass protests and exploit these to take power (e.g. in Venezuela or Bangladesh). A number of reformists and centrists react to this situation by taking a neutral position on these mass struggles or even by joining the camp of the oppressor. Such abstentionism or even support for the autocracy is utterly reactionary. When the masses enter a struggle, in particular if they have lived under a bourgeois authoritarian regime for many years, it is only natural that they lack experience and entertain naïve illusions. The answer of socialists must not be to isolate themselves from such struggles but rather to join the masses, to help them in building bodies of self-organisation and to win them for a socialist program by relating to their experience. Socialists can only combat attempts of right-wing forces to gain influence among the masses when they join the struggle of the masses – and not be standing on the sidelines! Socialists will resolutely oppose mobilisations only in cases where backward sectors of the masses, led by reactionary forces, take the street and fight for reactionary goals (e.g. anti-migrant riots, anti-abortion protests, chauvinist mobilisations, etc.).

The character of the current period and the struggle for revolutionary leadership

53. The new phase which opened on 7 October 2023 is another cycle of wars and revolutions. It reflects the deep contradictions of capitalism – a system which has been in a period of decay since the Great Recession in 2008/09. These contradictions have even accelerated since the Great Depression in 2019/20, resulting first in a global wave of popular uprisings in summer/autumn 2019, then the COVID-Counterrevolution in 2020-22, followed by major events like the Ukraine War and the Gaza War. It is a breathless period where one shock is followed by the next, where the contradictions between classes and states have accelerated to such a degree that wars, revolutions and counterrevolutions are a constant feature and where major catastrophes – ecological collapse, world war, etc. – are approaching. These catastrophes can only be avoided if the international working class takes power in time. It is because of such profound explosive features that we have emphasized the revolutionary character of the historic period since 2008 from its very beginning. The events since then have completely confirmed our analysis. ^[39]

54. At the same time, these crisis and upheavals reveal once more the deep crisis of working-class leadership. In all these struggles, it is non-revolutionary forces – usually petty-bourgeois nationalist, populist or Islamist forces or reformist-bureaucratic parties and trade unions – who are the head of such movements. Authentic revolutionaries are a very small force and even centrist forces – formally adhering to “Trotskyism”, Maoism, or other radical currents – usually have only little influence in mass struggles. However, without a strong revolutionary party – nationally and internationally – it will be impossible to secure any lasting victory for the working class and the oppressed.

55. Many leftists draw pessimistic conclusions from this. They either opportunistically adapt to the strong reformist or populist forces – the “realistic” response of spineless and careerists. Or they retreat into sectarian circles and hope for a miraculous solution by “regrouping the left”. But the task in such a situation is not to despair or to give up – this is the life motto of hysterics and “’tired’ old people of thirty years” as Lenin liked to call demoralised renegades. As a matter of fact, many great movements in history started small and had to endure periods of weakness – think about the early Christians, the “secret societies” in China, the Russian Marxists in the 1880s and 1890s or later the Trotskyists. In periods of counterrevolutions and historic defeats, revolutionaries might indeed be compelled to exist as small, isolated groups (like e.g. in the 1850s, the period of the “Long Boom” after World War II or, to a certain degree the 1990s).

56. However, the current period is very different. It is a period full of struggles which give rise to new generations of revolutionary fighters. A brief look at the age composition of the pro-Palestine solidarity movement, the faces of the numerous martyrs of the Palestinian resistance, the young demonstrators in Bangladesh, Kenya, Nigeria, etc., the rebels in Burma/Myanmar – all this confirms that we are living in a period of mass politicisation and radicalisation of the youth (and not only the youth!). It is a remarkable sign of the times that even among the upper middle class and the bourgeoisie, individuals break ranks and publicly protest against the Western support of Israel’s genocide (see e.g. the protesting students at elite universities in Harvard and Yale, the resignations of officials from the state department or the army in the U.S., public protests of university professors, etc). Everyone who has an inch of historical knowledge knows that this is the air of 1968!

57. In such a period, the task of revolutionaries is to orientate to such struggles and to participate in these. They must not screw up their noses about “the lack of socialist consciousness” of the masses but rather learn to translate the language of Marxism into one which is understandable to the masses. At the same time, Marxists must not opportunistically adapt to the illusions dominating the consciousness of activists. The task is rather to patiently advocate a revolutionary program of struggle which links the tactics for the struggle today with the goal of socialist revolution. The revolutionary party which has to be built will be based, first and foremost, on such new layers of fighters and not on the ranks of the old worn-out left.

58. This does not mean that Marxists should simply ignore the left. First, it will often be necessary to coordinate activities with such forces. More importantly, the reformist and centrist organizations, despite their political failures, are not immune to the pressure of the dynamic of class struggle. This might often result into “realistic” opportunistic adaption to dominating reformist or populist forces. But it is also possible that the dynamic of a new layer of vanguard fighters affects such reformist or centrist forces and pushes them to the left. It would be self-defeating sectarianism for Marxists to arrogantly ignore such developments. Quite the opposite, the RCIT has always pro-actively reacted to such developments and encouraged joint collaboration and discussion with such forces with whom we find common ground on the main tasks of the national and international class struggle. [40] There is no doubt that the construction of a revolutionary world party is a difficult task ahead of us. But it can be achieved if revolutionaries combine Marxist analysis and program with energetic willpower, if they orientate to the mass struggles and if they unite with like-minded forces!

Appendix

The mass movement began to recover after the 2020 standstill

The world bourgeoisie – in an unprecedented, centralized way via the WHO – stopped the workers’ and popular uprising in the second half of 2019, which had resulted in several important rebellions around the world, with the lockdown policy, which in China was called Zero Covid.

Although the capitalists managed to stop the mobilizations for more than two years, they did not manage to deal a decisive blow to the mass movement, which slowly but consistently began to recover and give continuity to the process prior to 2020.

An example of this dynamic is the heroic resistance of the Palestinian people, which confronts one of the most powerful and bloodthirsty armies on the planet and gave rise to the massive solidarity actions that developed and continue to develop throughout the planet.

The workers’ and people’s struggle advanced in general terms and gave rise to the rebellion in Bangladesh, the mobilizations against fraud in Venezuela, the mobilizations in Kenya, the strikes in South Korea, the actions against the dictatorship in Myanmar and the march for justice in Corrientes (Argentina), after the disappearance of a child in a very small and marginal town in that province.

The working class and the peoples of the whole world are regaining the initiative, counting on a considerable advantage: the counterrevolutionary apparatuses, particularly the Latin American populisms, which are a world reference for the rest, are going through a critical situation never seen before.

This reality was expressed in the resounding electoral defeat of Chavismo in Venezuela, which, to remain in power, must intensify its repressive policies. Another demonstration is the fall from grace of Peronism in Argentina, which lost the elections against an outsider, is being shattered by great internal fights and a trial of the former president for violence against his ex-wife. The union bureaucracy, once the undisputed leader of the working class, is suffering the consequences of this crisis because it is part of the Peronist apparatus and does not respond to the basic demands of its members, who hate the union leaders, who live surrounded by luxury, while the majority lose their achievements, jobs and the purchasing power of their salaries.

For this reason, while it is true that we must continue to use the tactic of putting demands on the traditional leadership, what prevails today is the denunciation of these mobsters and the agitation about the need to replace them with a new combative and democratic leadership, which promotes the struggles of resistance and plays at unifying them in active regional and national strikes.

In this context, a good part of the revolutionary left has been transformed to begin to occupy the place – of containment within the system – that was previously occupied by the Stalinist, social-democratic and populist apparatuses. This is what happens with the Argentine Left Front, which is exponentially deepening its adaptation to the regime.

Its Latin American parties and satellites tend to capitulate to Chavismo, Lulaism, the MAS of Bolivia, Peronism and other expressions of regional populism, just at a time when these counterrevolutionary apparatuses are undergoing a phenomenal process of putrefaction.

In these circumstances, not drawing lines with these sectors is suicidal, because it prevents the parties and leaders of the revolutionary left from appearing before the mass movement as an alternative, since those below confuse them with the old, which must be thrown into the dustbin of history. Thus, new leaders of the right, such as Javier Milei, do what the left does not know how to do to position themselves as “opponents of the caste,” win elections and certain mass support. The need to relentlessly denounce these apparatuses does not mean that we must abandon the policy of putting demands, reflecting the fact that the left that is not currently in a position to organize the rebellions that are needed to end the adjustment measures of the ruling class. It means that what is needed is to emphasise the slogans that are different from the machinery and their counterrevolutionary leadership.

The crisis of the regime, the transitional democratic slogans and the development of direct democracy and dual power

The Covid Counterrevolution was a unique attempt by all (or the vast majority) of the world bourgeoisie to change the bourgeois democratic regime into a kind of Bonapartism, with great restrictions and curtailment of democratic freedoms. This policy took place as a reaction to the process of rise of the mass movement, which crossed the whole world and, in some countries, created the conditions of a revolutionary situation.

But the attempt to abandon formal democracy by the big capitalists was not only due to the crisis of the institutions of representative democracy and was not only a sign of the advance of the mass movement; it also reflected the exhaustion of this political regime, which can no longer play the role of containment that it always played. The crisis of the institutions of representative democracy is much deeper and more visible in the oppressed, semi-colonial countries, but it permeates almost the entire capitalist system, with varying degrees of depth.

The most progressive consequence of this process is the tendency for new democratic mechanisms to emerge in the struggles of the working class and popular masses, based on organizations for the self-organization of struggles, which, to the extent that these become radicalized, can lead to the development of mechanisms of popular power, such as the local councils in Syria, which expressed the most advanced aspects of the Arab Spring.

This process of exhaustion of bourgeois democracy is closely related to the growing importance of democratic demands in the struggles of the mass movement throughout the world, not only where there are openly dictatorial regimes, but also in those countries where the institutions corresponding to representative democracy continue to exist. In the present circumstances, these democratic demands must aim at the implementation of mechanisms for direct democracy, a practice that is denied and boycotted by the bureaucrats who control the unions and workers’ centres, because when it is developed it questions the power of traitorous leaders and can become the backbone of revolutionary power.

The defence of democratic freedoms, which all capitalist governments will try to crush in this period of crisis and wars between powers, must be combined with the agitation of slogans that point in this direction. The first of these has to do with the primary instrument on which this practice is based, which is the grassroots assembly, where everything is discussed and resolved by majority vote.

[1] We refer readers to special pages on our website where the RCIT documents on the 2023 Gaza War are compiled: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/compilation-of-articles-on-the-gaza-uprising-2023/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/compilation-of-articles-on-the-gaza-uprising-2023-24-part-2/

[2] For a detailed map of global protests see e.g. Nasser Khdour, Ameneh Mehvar, Luca Nevola, Kieran Doyle: Q&A Gaza’s Global Aftershocks, ACLED, 11 July 2024, p. 16

[3] For our analysis and perspectives of the Palestinian liberation struggle see e.g. two books by our comrade Yossi Schwartz, a Jewish Anti-Zionist since nearly six decades living in Occupied Palestine, who has dealt extensively with the Zionist state and the Marxist program: The Zionist Wars. History of the Zionist Movement and Imperialist Wars, 1 February 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-zionist-wars/; Palestine and Zionism. The History of Oppression of the Palestinian People. A Critical Account of the Myths of Zionism, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/palestine-and-zionism/; see also a pamphlet by Michael Pröbsting: On some Questions of the Zionist Oppression and the Permanent Revolution in Palestine, May 2013, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/permanent-revolution-in-palestine/

[4] Bloomberg: $6.4 Trillion Stock Wipeout Has Traders Fearing ‘Great Unwind’ Is Just Starting, 6 August 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-05/-6-4-trillion-wipeout-sows-fear-great-unwind-is-just-starting; The National News: World’s richest lose $134bn as US recession fears spark Wall Street rout, 3 August 2024, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/markets/2024/08/03/worlds-richest-lose-134bn-as-us-recession-fears-spark-wall-street-rout/

[5] See on this e.g. Damián Quevedo: Lunes Negro, expresión bursátil de una recesión que avanza en un contexto que empuja hacia la guerra entre potencias, 13 August 2024, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2024/08/lunes-negro-expresion-bursatil-de-una.html

[6] David P Goldman: A tale of two bubbles, 6 August 2024, https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/a-tale-of-two-bubbles/

[7] Michael Roberts: Market meltdown – does it mean a recession? 10 August 2024, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2024/08/10/market-meltdown-does-it-mean-a-recession/

[8] Global Times: US chip subsidy leads to bubbles endangering financial market, 7 August 2024, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202408/1317590.shtml

[9] See RCIT’s documents on AI and our critique are compiled on a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/compilation-of-articles-on-artificial-intelligence/.

[10] The RCIT has analysed the crisis of the capitalist world economy in much detail. The latest documents are compiled on a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-great-depression/. See e.g. Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: “The Next Decade Will Be Very Painful”. A revealing internal memorandum by China’s Huawei Founder Ren Zhengfei on the Great Depression, 26 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-the-next-decade-will-be-very-painful/; by the same author: World Economy: It’s Official – the Recession has Begun, 30 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-it-s-official-the-recession-has-begun/; World Economy: The Second Slump Has Begun, 28 November 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-the-second-slump-has-begun/; World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/; see Chapter I and II in RCIT: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; see Chapter I and II in Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/; by the same author: Another Great Recession of the Capitalist World Economy Has Begun. The economic crisis is an important factor in the current dramatic shift in the world situation, 19 October 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/another-great-recession-of-the-capitalist-world-economy-has-begun/.

[11] CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis: CPB World Trade Monitor May 2024, 25 July 2024, p. 5

[12] Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, 17 July 2024, p. 4

[13] See on this e.g., Richard Brenner, Michael Pröbsting, Keith Spencer: The Credit Crunch – A Marxist Analysis, London 2008

[14] Radhika Desai, Michael Hudson and Mick Dunford: The truth about China’s economy: Debunking Western media myths, 28 March 2024, https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/03/28/china-economy-western-media-myths/

[15] IMF: World Economic Outlook, April 2024, p. 71

[16] Michael Roberts: On Profitability and Reforming Capitalism. A Reply to Seth Ackerman, 11 October 2023, https://spectrejournal.com/on-profitability-and-reforming-capitalism/; see also Deepankar Basu, Julio Huato, Jesus Lara Jauregui & Evan Wasner (2022): World Profit Rates, 1960–2019, Review of Political Economy, DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2022.2140007, p. 11

[17] The RCIT has analysed the crisis of the capitalist world economy in much detail. The latest documents are compiled on a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-great-depression/. See also Chapter I and II in RCIT: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; see Chapter I and II in Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/; by the same author: Another Great Recession of the Capitalist World Economy Has Begun. The economic crisis is an important factor in the current dramatic shift in the world situation, 19 October 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/another-great-recession-of-the-capitalist-world-economy-has-begun/.

[18] The RCIT has dealt on numerous occasions with the inter-imperialist rivalry of the Great Powers. See e.g. RCIT: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; see also our book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/; see also the following works by the same author: “A Really Good Quarrel”. US-China Alaska Meeting: The Inter-Imperialist Cold War Continues, 23 March 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/; for more works on this issue see these sub-pages: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

[19] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in China and its transformation into a Great Power. See on this e.g. the book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/; see also by the same author: “Chinese Imperialism and the World Economy”, an essay published in the second edition of “The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism” (edited by Immanuel Ness and Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China: An Imperialist Power … Or Not Yet? A Theoretical Question with Very Practical Consequences! Continuing the Debate with Esteban Mercatante and the PTS/FT on China’s class character and consequences for the revolutionary strategy, 22 January 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-imperialist-power-or-not-yet/; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; How is it possible that some Marxists still Doubt that China has Become Capitalist? (A Critique of the PTS/FT), An analysis of the capitalist character of China’s State-Owned Enterprises and its political consequences, 18 September 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Unable to See the Wood for the Trees (PTS/FT and China). Eclectic empiricism and the failure of the PTS/FT to recognize the imperialist character of China, 13 August 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/; China’s Emergence as an Imperialist Power (Article in the US journal ‘New Politics’), in: “New Politics”, Summer 2014 (Vol:XV-1, Whole #: 57). See many more RCIT documents at a special sub-page on the RCIT’s website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.

[20] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in Russia and its rise to an imperialist power. The most important ones are several pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: The Peculiar Features of Russian Imperialism. A Study of Russia’s Monopolies, Capital Export and Super-Exploitation in the Light of Marxist Theory, 10 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/; by the same author: Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism. Another Reply to Our Critics Who Deny Russia’s Imperialist Character, August 2014, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-theory-and-russia/; Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18 March 2014 (this pamphlet contains a document written in 2001 in which we established for the first time our characterisation of Russia as imperialist), http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialist-russia/; see also these essays by the same author: Russia: An Imperialist Power or a “Non-Hegemonic Empire in Gestation”? A reply to the Argentinean economist Claudio Katz, in: New Politics, 11 August 2022, at https://newpol.org/russia-an-imperialist-power-or-a-non-hegemonic-empire-in-gestation-a-reply-to-the-argentinean-economist-claudio-katz-an-essay-with-8-tables/; Russian Imperialism and Its Monopolies, in: New Politics Vol. XVIII No. 4, Whole Number 72, Winter 2022, https://newpol.org/issue_post/russian-imperialism-and-its-monopolies/; Once Again on Russian Imperialism (Reply to Critics). A rebuttal of a theory which claims that Russia is not an imperialist state but would be rather “comparable to Brazil and Iran”, 30 March 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/once-again-on-russian-imperialism-reply-to-critics/. See various other RCIT documents on this issue at a special sub-page on the RCIT’s website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.

[21] Figures for the year 2000: APEC: Regional Trends Analysis, May 2021, p. 2; the figures for Germany and India in the first column are for the year 2005 (UNIDO: Industrial Development Report 2011, p. 194); figures for the year 2022: UNIDO: International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics Edition 2023, pp. 36-37

[22] WTO: Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, April 2024, p. 40

[23] Fortune Global 500, August 2023, https://fortune.com/ranking/global500/2023/ (the figures for the share is our calculation)

[24] Forbes: Forbes Billionaires 2023, https://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2023/04/04/forbes-37th-annual-worlds-billionaires-list-facts-and-figures-2023/?sh=23927e7477d7

[25] Hurun Global Rich List 2021, 2.3.2021, https://www.hurun.net/en-US/Info/Detail?num=LWAS8B997XUP

[26] SIPRI Yearbook 2024: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, p. 272

[27] See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: Western Imperialism and the Crisis of its Ideology of Justification, 10 July 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/western-imperialism-and-the-crisis-of-its-ideology-of-justification/; by the same author: The U.S. Dollar Today and the Pound Sterling before 1914. A historical comparison of the role of currencies in the uneven process of decline of hegemonic imperialist powers, 26 June 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/u-s-dollar-today-and-pound-sterling-before-1914/

[28] For a detailed analysis of Ukraine see e.g. our pamphlet by Michael Pröbsting: Ukraine: A Capitalist Semi-Colony. On the exploitation and deformation of Ukraine’s economy by imperialist monopolies and oligarchs since capitalist restoration in 1991, January 2023, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/ukraine-a-capitalist-semi-colony/

[29] We refer readers to a special page on our website where all RCIT documents on the Ukraine War and the NATO-Russia conflict are compiled: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/.

[30] See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: Western Financial Sharks Try to Squeeze Dividends from the Ukraine, 21 May 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/western-financial-sharks-try-to-squeeze-dividends-from-the-ukraine/

[31] See e.g. Adam Smith: Bangladesh: Sheik Hasina Has Fled, 11.08.2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/bangladesh-sheik-hasina-has-fled/

[32] We draw reader’s attention to other documents of the RCIT and CS on the military coup in Myanmar which are compiled on a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/collection-of-articles-on-the-military-coup-in-myanmar/.

[33] See on this e.g. RCIT: Venezuela: The Presidential Elections and Revolutionary Tactics. No support for Maduro nor any other bourgeois candidate! For an independent workers party! 30 June 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/latin-america/venezuela-the-presidential-elections-2024-and-revolutionary-tactics/; RCIT: The Character of the Political Regime of Venezuela, 20.07.2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/latin-america/the-character-of-the-political-regime-of-venezuela/; Convergencia Socialista: Fuera Maduro, toda nuestra solidaridad con el pueblo venezolano que lucha por su libertad, 30.07.2024, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2024/07/fuera-maduro-toda-nuestra-solidaridad.html; Venezuela, sectores populares y las oposiciones resisten al fraude , reporte desde Caracas por el luchador socialista Omar Vázquez Heredia, 30.7.2024, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2024/07/desde-venezuela-reporte-del-luchador.html

[34] See e.g. RCIT: Kenya: Masses Set Parliament on Fire as Police Kills many Demonstrators! 27.06.2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/kenya-masses-set-parliament-on-fire-as-police-kills-many-demonstrators/; Raimi Akegbejo: Kenya: Down With the Ruto Government!, 2^nd July 2024, https://communism4africa.wordpress.com/2024/07/02/down-with-the-ruto-government/

[35] See on this e.g. RSV: ON THE “DAYS OF RAGE”/#ENDBADGOVERNANCEINNIGERIA PROTESTS, 31^st July 2024, https://communism4africa.wordpress.com/2024/08/01/on-the-days-of-rage-endbadgovernanceinnigeria-protests/

[36] See on this e.g. Convergencia Socialista: We must build a new Argentinazo! A plan of struggle to end the Milei government and the IMF plans, February 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/latin-america/action-program-for-argentina-february-2024/

[37] See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: Theses on the Growing Impact of the National and Democratic Question. The Marxist theory of Permanent Revolution and its application in the current historic period of capitalist decay, 23 February 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/theses-on-growing-impact-of-national-and-democratic-question/

[38] See on this e.g. RCIT: RCIT-Theses on the United Front Tactic. Theses on the Principles of the United Front Tactic and Its Application to the Current Conditions of Class Struggle, 9 April 2016, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/united-front-tactic/

[39] For our analysis of the current historic period see e.g. chapter 14 in our book by Michael Pröbsting: The Great Robbery of the South. Continuity and Changes in the Super-Exploitation of the Semi-Colonial World by Monopoly Capital Consequences for the Marxist Theory of Imperialism, RCIT Books, Vienna 2013, http://www.great-robbery-of-the-south.net/. See also chapter II in RCIT: RCIT: World Perspectives 2016: Advancing Counterrevolution and Acceleration of Class Contradictions Mark the Opening of a New Political Phase, 23 January 2016, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2016/

[40] See e.g. RCIT: A Period of Catastrophes, Wars, and Revolutions Requires Unity of Revolutionaries! Statement for the Conference in Milano on 17/18 February 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/rcit-statement-for-milano-conference-february-2024/; Internationalist Meeting in Milano: An Inspiring Conference! 22 February 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit/report-from-internationalist-meeting-in-milano-february-2024/

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