The ISL, the section of the RCIT in Israel/Occupied Palestine, 01.11.2021
Today we were informed that Israel is carrying out a major drill as it expects that in the coming war against Hezbollah the Lebanese organization will fire 2,000 rockets a day causing internal strife. The drill is simulating a large-scale war in which civilians are evacuated from the northern border. Israel expects that the Israelis will hide inside bomb shelters for an extended length of time. According to a 2020 Zionist State Comptroller report, millions of Israelis do not have basic protection means near their homes. The drill will also deal with the ability of hospitals to handle a large number of wounded soldiers needing urgent care, as well as the moving of patients to hospitals in the center of the country. [i]
This drill raises the question of why to prepare a war against Lebanon at this time? Iran is saying that the killing of protesters in Lebanon a week ago by the Christian defense forces was sedition backed by Israel. Some forces are pushing for a civil war in Lebanon and it is likely that it is Israel or its Arab allies.
“Iran believes that the people, the government, the army, and the resistance in Lebanon will successfully overcome seditions backed by the Zionist entity,” the IRNA news agency quoted the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh. “ [ii]
While we do not necessarily believe the Iranian regime this claim makes sense. As we write in this article not only the tension between Israel and Hezbollah is growing but the tension between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia is growing and also Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have expelled Lebanon’s ambassadors in recent days.
“We are facing a crisis created by one of the countries in the region, which is waging a brutal war against another Arab country,” said Mohammed Raad, head of the Hezbollah faction in the Lebanese parliament“… “The Hezbollah official said: “One of the ministers of the Lebanese government (Minister of information George Kordahi) stated support of the right of the Yemeni people to protect themselves against the aggressor coalition that has invaded their country, before assuming the post of minister in this government.” [iii]
“I think the issue is far broader than the current situation,” Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud told Reuters in a phone interview. “I think it’s important that the government in Lebanon or the Lebanese establishment forges a path forward that frees Lebanon from the current political construct, which reinforces the dominance of Hezbollah.” [iv]
In recent weeks, Israeli war Minister Benny Gantz has spoken a few times of Israel’s readiness to attack Iran to prevent it from advancing its nuclear program. “I do not rule out the possibility that Israel will have to take action in the future to prevent a nuclear Iran,” he said at a briefing of foreign ambassadors and envoys. And as though to add to the alarmist mood, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of General Staff Aviv Kochavi claimed that the “progress in the Iranian nuclear program has led the IDF to speed up its operational plans” [v]
We do not know whether Iran is advancing its nuclear energy program for economic reasons as Iran says or for creating nuclear weapons as Israel claims. In any case, Iran has the right to develop nuclear weapons as Israel has nuclear bombs according to the foreign mass media. The USA has such weapons and so its allies like Pakistan and furthermore the USA is the only state that used atomic weapons, dropped on Japan in WWII. It is clear that a non-imperialist state that does not possess such a weapon is a potential victim of imperialist aggression. Iraq that did not possess weapons for mass destruction by 2003 and was attacked and occupied by the USA and its allies and they do not dare to attack North Korea that has such weapons.
Israel wants to sabotage any chance for a US-Iranian deal similar to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). “It is unlikely that Israeli politicians will voluntarily cease to fan the flames of tension with Iran as they usually capitalize on fear-mongering in their domestic politics. That could make successful nuclear talks harder to achieve.” [vi]
Israel by itself is unable to win a war against Iran and Hezbollah. It may rely on the right-wing Christian defense forces in Lebanon that are close to Israel to open civil war in Lebanon while together with the Arab states that are partners to the Abraham accord to attack Iran.
The Abraham Accords are a series of treaties normalizing relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, arranged by the U.S. Administration between August and December 2020. Those Arab states joined Egypt and Jordan in making “peace” with Israel. As we saw in the Zionist war against Lebanon in 1982 before the Zionist state attacked Lebanon it made “peace” with Egypt.
Even so, without the assistance of the USA, Israel and the local ruling classes of the Arab states will find it difficult to go to a full-fledged war against Iran and its allies. The USA imperialists are focusing on the growing conflict with imperialist China. However, it has not fully relinquished its control in the Middle East and may provide Israel with new destructive weapons. The chances that the US will attack Iran are almost zero. That does not mean it will not provide Israel with more destructive weapons like the new 5,000 pound GBU-72 bombs. Meanwhile the U.S. Air Force said Sunday it flew a B-1B strategic bomber over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all oil traded passes. Fighter jets from Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia flew alongside the bomber. The USA may be applying pressure on Iran and its nuclear energy program, but we have seen in history that such exercises can lead to a very real war.
We can hear the drums of a new horrible war in the Middle East where millions of people will die. In such a war the oppressed Palestinians may join in a new intifada against the Zionist state. In a case of such a war, the interest of the international working class is the revolutionary defeat of Israel and its allies as Israel is an imperialist state of settler colonialists that functions as the front line of the imperialists in the region. Iran is a regional power with a reactionary regime but is not an imperialist state. As Lenin said, for humanity to live imperialism must die.
Down with the Imperialists!
Down with Zionism
For red and free Palestine from the river to the sea!
For a socialist federation of the Middle East!
Endnotes:
[i] https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/home-front-command-rahel-to-carry-out-joint-war-time-drill-starting-today-683587
[ii] https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/iran-claims-shooting-at-hezbollah-protesters-was-backed-by-israel-1.10297291
[iii] https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/hezbollah-saudi-crisis-deepens-and-could-impact-israel-analysis-683596
[iv] https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/crisis-with-lebanon-rooted-in-hezbollah-dominance-saudi-minister-683588
[v] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/17/israel-isnt-strong-enough-to-attack-iran/
[vi] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/an-escalating-israel-iran-conflict-could-sink-the-jcpoa/