Yossi Schwartz ISL (RCIT section in Israel/Occupied Palestine) 05.03.2026
Iran has air force inferiority, which allows Israel and the United States to attack not only senior Iranian officials and military targets, but already more than 1,000 civilians were killed. However, Iran has another weapon, which is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil and gas tankers are unable to pass. Twenty percent of the world’s oil would have crossed the strait before the attack by the United States and Israel. On the day before the war, about 80 oil and gas tankers crossed the strait, and on Monday of this week, only two crossed it. The oxygen tap of the world economy is closed. As the situation continues, the American electorate will feel it in their pockets — and Trump will be thrown out at the ballot box.
Only about 34 kilometers separate the two banks of the Strait of Hormuz at its narrowest point. And Iran is closing it off with unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles.
Perhaps more than the threat to the stability of the Iranian regime, political support for the United States, or military achievements, is dwelling faster.
For years, Iran has hinted at the possibility that it would respond to an attack against it by closing the strait, and this threat has been dubbed Tehran’s “doomsday weapon.” To this time, it has not been implemented, even when Israel launched Operation “Am Kalvi” last June.
This time, with the understanding that this is a struggle for the very existence of the Islamic Republic, it has fulfilled this threat. According to the Financial Times, Khamenei himself came up with the war plan, which included attacks on the energy facilities of its Gulf neighbors
Iranian drones hit Qatar’s gas facilities and its national energy company, the world’s second-largest exporter of natural gas, announced a complete halt in production. About one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply disappeared from the market at once.
In Saudi Arabia, the Aramco refinery in Ras Tanura was shut down after shrapnel from intercepted UAVs. In the United Arab Emirates, a fire broke out in the oil industrial zone in Fujairah, the world’s third-largest oil storage center, and the port of Doqem in Oman was hit by a fuel tank. Oil and gas tankers are randomly attacked in the strait, and about 200 ships are anchored in the Gulf waters without being able to leave, according to Marine Traffic.
The market reacted quickly: the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil traded around $83 (an increase of about 12% since the beginning of the war), the price of a barrel may rise to $150 a barrel in a few weeks.
The realization of these dire predictions will have direct implications for consumers around the world, and especially for the American consumer, many of whom are already opposed to war, with the midterm elections approaching in November they will vote against Trump.
The main victims are East Asian countries – Japan, China, South Korea and India, but other countries will also be affected
Energy is a basic product in every production process in the modern economy. As soon as its price goes up, the price of everything goes up: the chips, the aluminum, anything that requires energy to produce it, which is almost everything.” The U.S. won’t tolerate either: The capitalist is calculating who pays him more. If the foreign importer is willing to pay more than the local gas company, he will sell it to him.
This threat has led the major marine insurance companies to stop insuring tankers crossing the strait, or to raise the risk premium until shipping becomes uneconomical.
In a post published yesterday on the Truth Social network, the president announced that he had ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide insurance and guarantees for all maritime trade passing through the Gulf, meaning that if the private market is not willing to insure the tankers, the U.S. government will do so instead.
Trump added that “if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible,” and promised, “No matter what, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world.”
The crisis is already leaving its mark on the global system. The direct beneficiary may actually be Iran’s ally, Russia. Europe, when it is in real distress, will buy oil and gas from Russia.
The pressure of the masses of the American people and other countries will force the United States to stop the attack, and Israel will be accused of dragging the United States into war.
The bombing of Iran will not bring down the regime. To avoid sending troops, Trump wants to use the national and ethnic minorities, the Kurds, Balutis and Arabs. These forces are not likely to bring down the regime.
If Trump will end the war soon Iran will be the victorious party and if Trump will send troops to fight in Iran the American people will be in the streets and try to bring Trump down.