Yossi Schwartz ISL (RCIT section in Israel/Occupied Palestine), 17.5.2024
According to a report in the “Wall Street Journal”, Cairo may lower the level of diplomatic relations with Israel and return the ambassador from Tel Aviv . This is after the Egyptian step to join the lawsuit of South Africa against Israel in The Hague.
Egypt claimed that Israel informed Cairo about the operation in Rafah only a few hours before it began. They also said that Israel promised that it would leave an entry point for humanitarian aid, and that the Palestinians would have time to evacuate the area. None of these promises have been fulfilled.
Even if Egypt will not break its relations with the Zionist state, the threat reflects the growing fear of Al Sisi of the coming of the Arab revolution. The Egyptian local ruling class is between the hammer and the hard place. If it breaks its diplomatic relations with Israel, the latter will not intervene to save the regime in a popular uprising. If it will not break the diplomatic relations with Israel, it may further push the Egyptian masses to rise.
For this reason, we should be skeptical about the regime and its intentions. At the same time, we should be aware that the Zionist attack on Rafah can lead to a regional war, and it’s unlikely that in such a war, Egypt will join Israel. Biden, the president of American imperialism, is aware of this possibility and warned Netanyahu of it. However, his threat to stop the delivery of weapons to Israel if Israel attacks Rafah is no more than a token serving his PR for the presidential elections in time. A growing number of Americans oppose his full support for Israel.
“Egypt’s deteriorating economy suffers from growing public debt, now at more than 90 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), capital flight, and the currency’s fall against the US dollar. There are also economic reasons for Egypt’s anger with Israel. Egypt’s economy suffers from growing public debt, now at more than 90 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), capital flight, and the currency’s fall against the US dollar.
Egypt’s economy is based on the Suez Canal and tourism, both of them in crisis. “Before Israel’s war on Gaza erupted, Egypt’s tourism sector was already struggling to recover from COVID-19. But it appeared to be rebounding. The Gaza war and the Red Sea crisis could batter revenue prospects from this industry. According to S&P Global Ratings, Egypt’s tourism revenues are set to experience a 10-30 percent fall from last year, which could cost the country 4-11 percent of its foreign exchange reserves and shrink GDP. Since November, Egypt has been grappling with the economic impact of Houthi missile and drone attacks against Israel-linked commercial vessels in the Red Sea, which has been the Houthis’ response to Israel’s war on Gaza“.[i]
Cairo has repeatedly warned Israel about violating the 1979 peace treaty, yet Israeli forces, for the first time since its pullout from Gaza in 2007, took control of the Rafah border, which carried out a clear violation of the treaty, with its Rafah incursion.
Israel out of Gaza!
Down with the imperialists!
For red free Palestine from the river to the sea!
Endnotes:
[i] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/24/how-israels-war-on-gaza-is-bleeding-egypts-economy