Bosnia: A New Civil War Brewing?

Adam Smith, the ISL, RCIT in Israel/Occupied Palestine, 27.01.2021

Mao famously said that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun, and so the recent proposal for greater autonomy and separate army for the Republika Srpska can only mean a step towards a new civil war. According to DW:

“What did the Republika Srpska parliament agree? MPs voted to strip the Bosnian state of competencies in the areas of taxation, justice, and security and defense for the RS region. The three institutions represent key pillars of joint security, the rule of law and the economic system in Bosnia, which was divided into two autonomous regions after its 1992-1995 war. The proposal won a clear majority with 49 votes in favor in the 83-seat chamber. The vote amounted to a non-binding agreement that fell short of a final decision to quit the institutions — a move that would have needed the support of the region’s upper house. The Peace Implementation Council, which monitors compliance with the Dayton agreement, recently warned that a “unilateral withdrawal” from federal institutions is not possible. It has threatened “consequences” for any party that violates the peace agreement. This statement was not co-signed by Russia, which is part of the PIC, along with representatives of Western countries.The Kremlin supports Dodik’s actions, and the Bosnian Serb leader met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last week.” [1]

And to AlJazeera:

But in recent months, Bosnia has faced its worst political crisis since the 1990s, after Bosnian Serbs blocked the work of the central government and Dodik threatened to withdraw from state institutions, including the army, the judiciary and the tax system.” [2]

“Meanwhile, in the central Bosnian town of Jajce, Samir Beharic said he was feeling nervous about the future for the first time in his life. The 30-year-old said he was disappointed with the international community and did not expect “incompetent foreign diplomats” to ensure peace as their “quick-fix solutions” do not work. Recently, he said, his mother had asked him if they would have to flee Jajce again – just as they had in 1992 after the Army of Republika Srpska seized the city. “She said she’d rather die than live through a war again and she’s not the only one,” he said.” [3]

Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently under the rule of two separate parliaments, with both under the rule of the Imperialist-appointed High Commissioner.

Dodic is a Serbian nationalist who has fallen out of favor with the US: “He was once described in Washington as an anti-nationalist “breath of fresh air” in the murderous, genocide-scarred Balkan morass of ethnically divided Bosnia.

But in 2001, after losing a presidential election in Republika Srpska, Dodik changed course, refashioning himself as a nationalist hardliner and secessionist. He gradually gained control of all levels of Republika Srpska’s government, and in 2009 managed to expel foreign judges and prosecutors from Bosnia’s court system — amid reports he was under investigation for corruption and erosion of democracy.” [4]

And extremely corrupt:

“Over the years, Dodik weathered countless accusations by national and international rights and media freedom groups of curbing media independence and popularizing vile rhetoric against political opponents of all ethnic stripes. He notoriously defended the 2008 approval, by a regional development bank, of a favorable $2 million loan to a firm co-owned by his son, saying that “was better than letting (the young man) get addicted to drugs.” [5]

He is backed by the Russian and Serbian ruling class:

“Last summer, with tacit support from Moscow and Belgrade, Dodik spearheaded the Serb walkout from Bosnia’s multi-ethnic institutions — thus blocking decision-making — to protest the international High Representative in Bosnia’s move to outlaw genocide denial.” [6]

The dangers are clear, yet at the same time no hopes can be rested upon the shoulders of the US or UN(as history can very well teach us from the 90’s wars), they act out of their own limited self interest to limit Russian Imperialism.

Down with Dodic’s reactionary secession movement!

Down with the High Commission! Down with the Russian/US/EU meddling in Bosnia!






[5] Ibid

[6] Ibid

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