Yossi Schwartz ISL (RCIT section in Israel/Occupied Palestine) 17.03.2026
Two weeks after the start of the war against Iran, Trump is faced with a difficult choice: to continue fighting to achieve his ambitious goals, or to try to get out of a widening conflict that is shaking up the global military, diplomatic and economic system.
According to American sources quoted by the New York Times, both options come at a heavy price. The decision to join the campaign alongside Israel — the largest war in the Middle East in nearly a quarter of a century — was accompanied by optimistic assessments by the administration about its implications. However, in the two weeks since, it has become clear that reality has contradicted its expectations.
The Iranian army continues to cause significant economic damage to the United States and its allies. According to government officials, Iran has succeeded in disrupting global energy markets and harming many countries in the region through various attacks. But withdrawing from the campaign now could bring about Iran’s nuclear armament, which it had no intention of producing until the attack..
U.S. officials note that the joint attack by the United States and Israel has brought significant military achievements for the imperialists. According to estimates, much of Iran’s missile and air defense system has been destroyed, the Iranian navy has been severely damaged, and the country’s leader for nearly four decades, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been assassinated.
But the Iranian theocratic regime is still standing, led by Khamenei’s wounded son, who has declared that he will continue to use Iran’s asymmetrical capabilities, from cyberattacks to the laying of naval mines and firing missiles at targets in the region. The Revolutionary Guards and their loyal militias, which were involved in the suppression of large-scale demonstrations in Iran earlier this year, also remain active, and the new Supreme Leader expresses the militant line of the Revolutionary Guards.
Apparently, inside Iranian territory there is still a stockpile of enriched uranium at a level close to that required for the production of nuclear weapons – an amount that may be sufficient to produce ten or more bombs.
In the meantime, the conflict continues, and its ramifications are expanding. So far, 13 American soldiers have been killed in the battles, for a total of more than 2,100 people have been killed since the war began, most of them in Iran. According to Iran’s representative to the United Nations, more than 1,348 of those killed were civilians. What he said was about Trump and Netanyahu’s dreams of revolting against the regime.
Trump has decided to send an additional 2,500 Marines to the Middle East, which will join the 50,000 American troops already stationed in the region. This was after American forces attacked Kharg Island, the main port through which most of Iran’s oil exports pass, and they will try to take control of the oil on the island.
One of the dramatic consequences of the war is the damage to shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical sea route for global oil trade. Despite the administration’s early assessments that Iran would not succeed in significantly disrupting traffic in the strait, in practice the movement there was almost stopped.
“At least 16 oil tankers and commercial ships have been attacked in the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict. Many shipping companies are refusing to sail in the region due to the high risk, as oil prices approach the level of $100 a barrel and insurance premiums on ships in the region are soaring.
The main solution being considered is the escort of tankers by the US Navy, and others , but administration officials admit that this is an expensive and dangerous operation that could last for weeks. To do so, the United States will be required to concentrate a larger naval force and strike at the Iranian weapons that threaten the route.
In the meantime, the attacks in the area continue. Over the weekend, plumes of smoke were seen rising from an oil trading port in the United Arab Emirates following a drone attack, while the US embassy in Iraq was attacked twice in recent days. In order to ease the rise in energy prices, Washington has even decided to temporarily suspend some of the sanctions on the sale of Russian oil.
Alongside the close military cooperation between the United States and Israel, there are also differences of opinion between the sides. According to US officials, Trump and the commander of the US Central Command warned Israel against attacking the large oil reserves near Tehran. While the United States wants to control Iran and its oil, Israel seeks to destroy the Iranian state apparatus and destroy its economy.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to ignore the warnings, and Israel attacked the facilities, a move that ignited large fires and led to a spike in oil prices. In response, Iran launched a series of drone attacks against oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.”
The very fact that after two weeks of massive attacks, the regime is standing and the Iranians are standing behind the regime that is undermining the economy of Western imperialism is a victory for Iran. White House sources said that Israel’s assessment was that the burning of the oil reserves would create chaos within the Iranian leadership. In practice, the attacks led to further escalation in the regional energy arena.
Various centrists betray the working class LIS/ISL, CWI, ISA, PRMI when they do not defend Iran against imperialism. But there are centrist organizations such as Woods’ RCI and the Spartacists who in the past refused to defend Iran, but now that the masses are defending Iran, they have changed their position without any explanation. It is clear that they are tailing the masses.
If the war continues for much longer, the Iranian regime will need the support of the working class, and is likely to be open to concessions. This will allow the armed workers to demand that the workers will choose their commanders and when the war ends to turn to revolution against the regime.