On the collapse of Assad’s army, the uprisings’ popular and non-sectarian character, and Israel’s as well as the UAE’s role
By Michael Pröbsting, Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 2 December 2024, www.thecommunists.net
The glorious offensive of the Syrian rebels is astonishing by any standards. In the last few days, they liberated all parts of the province of Idlib, most of the province of Aleppo – including Aleppo City, the second largest city of the country with more than 2.3 million people – and entered the province of Hama. The current front line is north of Hama city.
The Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT) supported the Syrian Revolution from the very beginning. [1] While we lend no political support to the rebels’ leadership, we strongly welcome the offensive as it opens the possibility to for a popular uprising to bring down the reactionary Assad regime after more than 13 years of civil war. [2]
We recently published some first lessons from the renewed upswing of the revolutionary process. [3] In this article, we will discuss some interesting developments of the last two days.
What does the rapid collapse of the Assadist forces reveal?
One of the most impressive facts is that within a few days the rebels liberated a territory larger than they did already held in Idlib. This shows that not only that the people despise the Assad tyranny but that even its soldiers are not motivated to fight for it.
As a matter of fact, most soldiers of the Assad army are either forced conscripts or have been motivated by corruption as such positions allow to extort bribes from locals and travellers.
One may ask, how could the Assad regime survive until now? It could do so solely because of massive military and financial support by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. As we always said, without their air force and troops, the dictatorship would have collapsed long time ago.
However, such support was severely undermined in the past years mainly for two reasons. First, since spring 2022, Putin needed his forces for the war against the Ukraine – a substantially higher priority for the Kremlin than Syria. Second, since 7 October 2023 Hezbollah’s priority, naturally, was the defense of its own country. This depleted Assad’s military forces in the north and allowed the rebels to push them back within a few days. [4]
There are rumours that pro-Iranian militias in Iraq send thousands of fighters to help the Assad regime to survive. [5] In the end, it will be crucial question, to what extent will Russia and Iran mobilise troops and air force to keep the tyrant – an important ally for them – in power.
The popular and non-sectarian character of the uprising
The popular character of the ongoing Syrian revolution has been demonstrated throughout the whole process since 2011. We also see now how many people cheer at the possibility to return to their homes liberated from Assad’s thugs. There have also been spontaneous uprisings by the local populations in several towns of the southern provinces Daraa and Suwayda. In some places, people staged rallies against the Assad tyranny (e.g. Suwayda), in others, they attacked or even disarmed and expelled the regime forces. [6] Such local uprisings are happening also in other provinces like in Zakia city in the Damascus countryside or in Talbiseh city in the Homs province. [7]
This is particularly remarkable since the Assad regime is deeply feared because of myriads of horrible acts of terror which it has committed in the past decade, resulting in more than 600,000 people killed and many more arrested and tortured since the beginning of the uprising 13 years ago. However, the rebels’ offensive gives them new hope.
As we noted in our last article, while there were some sectarian tendencies in the Syrian Revolution – as a result of the extremely sectarian nature of the regime directed against the Sunni majority of the population – there also exist strong non-sectarian tendencies in this process. Events in the past days have strongly confirmed this. First, the uprisings in the southern province of Suwayda are largely based on the local Druze population.
Second, the opposition issued several statements in which it emphasised that the revolution is inclusive for all religious sects. [8] There have been efforts to guarantee normal life for the Christian minority in Aleppo. [9] They also issued a statement affirming that “Kurds are part of Syrian society and have the same rights.” [10]
Of course, it would be naive to exclude the possibility that sectarian actions could be committed by sectors of the rebel forces. There exists a long history of anti-Kurdish sentiments – especially among the factions from with the Türkiye-allied “Syrian National Army”. Such tendencies could easily be intensified given the close cooperation of the Kurdish main force – the SDF/YPG with the Assad regime and with U.S. imperialism. Likewise, various radical Islamist forces committed crimes against non-Sunni sects in the past decade. Still, it is encouraging to see that there seems to be now a conscious move by the opposition against sectarianism.
What is Israel’s role?
Supporters of the reactionary Assad regime try to smear the Syrian Revolution by claiming that the offensive would be a conspiracy of Israel against the “Axis of Resistance”. For example, the First Deputy Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Mohsen al-Mandalawi – a close ally of the Mullah dictatorship in Iran – “warned of the dangers posed by recent terrorist activity in Syria and its potential impact on security and stability in Iraq and the wider region. (…) [He] linked these developments to the setbacks faced by the Israeli entity in Lebanon and Gaza. He stated that the Israeli occupation’s failure to dismantle the unified fronts supporting Palestine prompted it to revive the use of terrorist groups in Syria.” [11]
Similar statements have been issued by Iranian officials or the pro-Hezbollah Al Mayadeen in Lebanon. This is, of course, an outrageous and silly lie. If Israel had any influence over the Syrian rebels, why on earth did they not instruct them to launch their offensive long time ago, before they had to settle for a ceasefire in Lebanon but only after?! Why did they wait for more than one year since the beginning of the conflict at the Lebanese-Israeli border on 7 October 2023?!
Of course, Israel has always tried to weaken Hezbollah and to restrict Iran’s arms shipment. This is why Israel regularly wages air strikes in Syria and will continue doing so.
Nevertheless, the Zionist state prefers the stability delivered by a dictator like Assad – who never fired a single short against Israel – to the “chaos” of the Syrian Revolution. According to Israel’s Channel 12, the Israeli army is preparing for the possibility to carry out air strikes in Syria for fear of strategic weapons (ballistic missiles and chemical weapons) could fall into the hands of “jihadists”. [12]
In short, Israel considers Hezbollah and Iran as enemies. It also resents the Assad regime insofar as it lends support to these adversaries. But it fears much more the Arab Revolution of which the popular uprising in Syria has been a key component from the very beginning.
The ruler of UAE in solidarity with Assad
The position of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – Israel’s closest Arab ally in the region which “normalized“ relations under the so-called “Abraham Accords” in 2020 – is equally hostile to the Syrian Revolution. In a phone call with Assad on 1 December, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed – the royal and authoritarian ruler – “affirmed the UAE’s solidarity with Syria and its support for it in combating terrorism and extremism.” [13]
The Emirates is a small but extremely rich country. 88% of the population are migrants who work as super-exploited labour force for the rich elite. Due to its gigantic wealth – based on huge oil and gas reserves – it has also built a sizeable military with a state-of-the-art air force and tens of thousands of mercenaries. [14] It plays a very reactionary role in the region and was always hostile to the Arab Revolution. It was a driving force in the reactionary invasion of Yemen in 2015 and is a major supporter of General Hemedti’s notorious RSF militia in Sudan as well as of General Haftar in Libya.
It is therefore hardly surprising that such a reactionary and pro-Zionist dictatorship hopes that the Assad regime will be able to brutally smash the popular uprising. Reactionary rulers always prefer “stability”, i.e. the unchallenged order of the imperialist powers and the local capitalist class, to the “revolutionary chaos”, i.e. the struggle of the workers and oppressed for freedom and dignity!
[1] The RCIT has published a number of booklets, statements and articles on the Syrian Revolution since its inception in March 2011 which can be read on a special sub-section on this website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/collection-of-articles-on-the-syrian-revolution/
[2] Syria: Long Live the New Offensive of the Rebels! 28 November 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/syria-long-live-the-new-offensive-of-the-rebels/
[3] Michael Pröbsting: Some First Lessons from the Revival of the Syrian Revolution, 29 November 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/some-first-lessons-from-the-revival-of-the-syrian-revolution/
[4] We refer readers to special pages on our website where the RCIT documents on the wars in Gaza and Lebanon are compiled: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/compilation-of-articles-on-the-gaza-uprising-2023/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/compilation-of-articles-on-the-gaza-uprising-2023-24-part-2/
[5] https://t.me/ClashReport/28442, https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/1863324846815416451
[6] See e.g. https://x.com/KyleWOrton/status/1863222599200751777, https://x.com/Step_Agency/status/1863311269131874379, https://twitter.com/halabtodaytv/status/1863104742022336579.
[7] See e.g. https://x.com/HalabTodayTV/status/1862960196261155159, https://twitter.com/nedaapost/status/1863091180616966442, https://twitter.com/albadia24/status/1862916079615353058.
[8] See e.g. https://t.me/ClashReport/28407
[9] See e.g. https://t.me/ClashReport/28086, https://t.me/ClashReport/28399, https://t.me/ClashReport/28427
[10] https://t.me/ClashReport/28395
[11] Al Mayadeen: Iraqi Parliament warns of terrorism in Syria, spread in region, 30 November 2024, https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iraqi-parliament-warns-of-terrorism-in-syria–spread-in-regi
[12] https://x.com/AakashAfridi3/status/1862979652718882895, https://x.com/alkhattabirw/status/1862945653439013121
[13] Contact between the UAE President and the Syrian President, 01 December 2024, https://www.alsharqiya.com/en/news/contact-between-the-uae-president-and-the-syrian-president
[14] See e.g. these 14-16 in Michael Pröbsting: The Looming Great War in East Africa. A Marxist approach to civil wars, inter-state tensions, and regional power interference at the Horn of Africa, 25 October 2024, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/the-looming-great-war-in-east-africa/