Yossi Schwartz ISL (RCIT section in Israel/Occupied Palestine) 22.07.2026
The recent developments in the Middle East reflect its lack of influence on the course of events, and especially on the policy of Donald Trump. Washington has agreed on a civilian nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, and according to all indications, it does not involve normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem. One of the reasons why the leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip decided to launch an attack on Israel at that time, because there was concern about approving a US-Saudi deal, which was supposed to include normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Today, Trump is pushing for the implementation of the agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which will require the withdrawal of the Zionist army from southern Lebanon, although the chances of this happening are slim unless Israel is totally defeated.
Netanyahu still hopes to influence Trump’s decisions on Iran. For now, Trump appears to be moving toward further escalation. Netanyahu would welcome joining a war against Iran, but Trump is preventing this while pressing to renew negotiations with Tehran.
A relatively new site has been opened in the Gulf, known as Salahin, near the Natanz nuclear facility. The madman from the White House said yesterday at a press conference with the traitorous Lebanese President Joseph Aoun that the United States might attack the site. The Wall Street Journal, quoting Israeli sources, reported but they could not be trusted that the Iranians transferred new centrifuges to the site last fall. The site was dug deep underground, but unlike other sites in the Iranian nuclear program, it has not been attacked so far. This indicates that the United States and Israel believe They do not have the capability to attack at such depth, unlike Fordow, which was bombed by the Americans in June last year. Added to this problem is the issue of the 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which Iran does not relinquish.
The US attacks on Iran have been going on for about 10 days, on Trump’s orders, allegedly in response to the Iranians’ firing at ships sailing in the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman. A move against “Mount Machosh” will express another escalation.
Netanyahu’s propaganda channels are already sowing rumors among their viewers of the expected escalation, in which Israel will participate. Trump does not have the ability to make long and costly moves: toppling the regime or forcing other significant concessions through a large-scale war effort. Therefore, the defeat of imperialism will continue, and the Houthis in Yemen are entering the fray.
In the meantime, Trump hosted Aoun in Washington, but it does not appear that Netanyahu respects Trump’s understandings with Aoun, and this exposes the betrayal of the Lebanese Quisling. Under pressure from Trump, Netanyahu may withdraw from Lebanon, but then he will have to convince the residents of the Galilee, who are thirsty for revenge, that such a withdrawal is a calculated risk, after it became clear that the declarations of victory lacked any cover.
Trump’s close relations with Turkey and the promise to provide it with F-35 also attest to the weakening of the United States’ relationship with Israel, whose fate is expected without the support of the United States
The US administration is expected to begin discussing the question of whether to resume security aid to Israel soon. The agreement, signed in 2016 under former President Barack Obama, promised $3.8 billion in aid per year until 2028. It seems that Trump has no intention of honoring this agreement, and with the Democrats winning the midterm elections, they will not necessarily renew military support for Israel.
These developments could also have political implications in Israel. According to most polls, the Likud is on a continuous downward trend, compared to the increase recorded by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. As the elections approach, Netanyahu is looking for a war to prevent elections on the grounds of a dire security situation. Since a security crisis could help change the public agenda, a scenario of deliberate escalation intended to serve this purpose cannot be ruled out.
A government headed by Eisenkot will be a right-wing government, and the fools who vote for the Democrats, headed by Yair Golan, who will join this government like a fig leaf, will get a right-wing government. The Democrats’ political position is a demilitarized Palestinian state, i.e., in Bantustan. It is still unclear whether Hadash will support such a government from the outside, and if it does not commit itself not to support, it should not be voted for. The United States is in the process of turning its back on Israel.