Yossi Schwartz ISL (RCIT section in Israel/Occupied Palestine) 06.03.2026
Trump is a bully that does not have a strategy nor knowledge of the rule of wars. In his stupidity, he dreamt of a quick victory in Iran. But already the opening days of the war on Iran are challenging the assumption that he can project force abroad while safeguarding American lives and the economy. He thought that Iran is similar to Venezuela where under Mr. Trump’s pirate leadership, the U.S. military captured Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, in a quick operation and he believed that the same will happen in Iran.
But the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, faces the risk of spiraling beyond those quick-strike operations, particularly if the administration will try to bring down the regime. Trump has encouraged the people of Iran to “take over” their country, but he has failed to see that most Iranians hate the US more than the regime.
Already, six Americans have been killed. Gulf allies are under attack. The stock market wobbled. Gas prices are rising. The U.S. military is spending hundreds of millions of dollars per day. In Iran, an airstrike on a girls’ elementary school killed 175 people, according to local health officials and Iranian state media, and the Trump administration says it is investigating who was responsible.
The dirty war of the United States and Israel, two imperialist countries against Iran, which is a semi-colony, is dragging Europe and the world into a severe energy crisis. The Revolutionary Guards are threatening to set fire to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transportation artery through which about 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipments pass.
Gas prices in Europe jumped by about 53% in a few days, from 31 euros to 48 euros per megawatt hour. At the same time, gas inventories in the European Union have fallen below 30%, significantly lower than the average of about 45% for this season, which raises concerns for the next winter.
Following the Iranian threat and attacks on Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities, oil tanker traffic in Egypt dropped by 90%. The shortage of Gas and oil will raise the price of many products. In response, President Trump promised to provide government insurance packages and U.S. Navy escort to commercial ships. This is how Trump has entered a well-planned trap of the murdered Khamenei who planted this trap.
Naval escorts will bring American forces closer to the range of Iranian shore-to-sea missiles and submarine fleets. Iran has 17 submarines at the Bandar Abbas base, which will cause the destruction of American warships alongside tankers, which will erode American public support for the war even more.
The economic pressure is particularly threatening for countries such as Germany and Italy, which rely heavily on imports. The crisis is also hitting the US economy, with a sustained increase of $10 in the price of a barrel of oil adding about 0.3% to US inflation.
The seafarers’ unions will likely declare the area a “war zone,” which will allow crews to refuse to sail through it. The crisis is worsening over reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels have ordered the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, forcing shipping giants such as Maersk to once again announce the diversion of routes to the Cape of Good Hope – a move that adds two weeks to the sailing time. It will raise the price of goods.
Now, Trump faces a difficult problem. Inaction will lead to chaos in global trade and a dramatic rise in the cost of living, while naval military action will drag the United States into a complex long war with no end in sight.
In addition, he may try to use some of the Kurds, the Baluchis and Arabs to bring down the regime. But this is beyond their capacity. He may ask the Israeli army to fight on the land of Iran that will be worse for Israel than the war on Gaza. If he decides to end the war Iran is the winner. Imperialist defeat is pushing more struggles against the imperialists. War may be the father of revolutions. Trotsky in My Life wrote that war is not merely as a destructive force, but a crucial accelerator of revolutionary change, famously arguing that while “war is the mother of invention,” it is also the “father of revolution”. It is easy to open a war and how it ends is a different story.
Down with American and the Zionist imperialism!
Revolutionary defense of Iran without giving the regime political support!
For an anti-imperialist united front!