Yossi Schwartz ISL (RCIT section in Israel \Occupied Palestine) 18.05.2026
It is difficult to know whether Trump intends to start a new round of war in Iran or whether he is using the threat of renewal of war as a tactic to pressure Iran to make concessions. So far, it seems that Trump has returned from the summit in Beijing with the Chinese president empty-handed. He may have hoped for an arrangement based on a concession by the United States over China’s pressure on Taiwan in exchange for Chinese intervention to resolve the crisis in the Gulf, but it is not at all clear that he has made progress. The one who is acting as if Trump has decided to renew the war is Israel: both the government and the Zionist army declare that they are preparing for the renewal of American attacks on Iran.
However, Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman, chairman of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), published an article yesterday on the institute’s website revealing some unknown details about the course of the war. Heiman, the former head of Military Intelligence, states that “despite tactical achievements, the two centers of gravity of the campaign, the Iranian regime and the nuclear project, remain unchanged,” and describes Iranian progress in the nuclear field between the previous campaign against Israel and the United States in June last year and the current round.
According to him, the previous campaign “did not pave the way for a permanent solution for Israel and Iran has proven its ability to rebuild quickly and strongly.” In the nuclear field, the Iranians rehabilitated the Fordow site and accelerated the construction of “Mount Makosh, which is immune to air strikes.” In the field of missiles, they reached a production rate of about 125 ballistic missiles per month and accumulated 2,500 with the start of the new campaign. Tehran has also led a rapid reconstruction of Hezbollah, by doubling its budget and resuming supply routes through Syria.
The Zionist army declaration was the erosion of its capabilities. The Iranian leadership moved to a decentralized command structure, and Mojtaba Khamenei, who was appointed supreme leader in place of his assassinated father, managed to prevent a government vacuum despite a series of assassinations of senior officials. According to Heyman, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz gave the Iranians a global leverage that changed American priorities and diverted the focus
Hayman also writes that the second phase of the war, after the assassinations of senior officials and the operation of the Kurdish militias (which was canceled), was supposed to include “the destruction of a project that was not realized until the first truce was implemented.” In his estimation, Mojtaba Khamenei is different from his father and does not rule out the production of nuclear weapons for religious reasons. “It is reasonable to assume that the conclusion of the Iranian leadership is that only nuclear deterrence will prevent the next war,” Heiman writes.
Last weekend, the United States announced a 45-day extension of the ceasefire in Lebanon. It was a fictitious announcement. Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continues, but this is done under limitations. Trump forbids the Zionist army from attacking Beirut and the Bekaa Valley most of the time. The airstrikes focus on Hezbollah positions and facilities south of the Litani River, but Hizbollah successfully responds with drones.
As a result, life in the Galilee settlements near the border has been completely disrupted, and it is also evident that the army’s manpower is in crisis. Yesterday, the Zionist army provided data to journalists that reflected the magnitude of the crisis. The Zionist army is short of about 12,000 soldiers in compulsory service, more than half of whom are combatants. The heavy losses in the war, and the high number of wounded soldiers and those who suffered from mental battle reactions, and those who commit suicide because of the war crimes they committed, cause the number of soldiers to dwindle.
The gap between the demands of the Zionist army for the continued war and murdering of Arabs, and the government’s attitude towards its difficulties has never been clearer, and it points not only to Israel’s defeat but also to the approaching end of it.